EXHIBIT 1.  Community And Institutional Annual Risk Factors for the CMS-HCC Model with Constraints And Demographic/Disease Interactions

Variable,Disease Group,Community Factors,Institutional Factors
Age/Sex Factors
Female0-34,,0.117,1.064
Female35-44,,0.197,1.064
Female45-54,,0.214,1.064
Female55-59,,0.265,1.064
Female60-64,,0.375,1.064
Female65-69,,0.307,1.164
Female70-74,,0.384,1.179
Female75-79,,0.483,0.992
Female80-84,,0.572,0.938
Female85-89,,0.665,0.88
Female90-94,,0.795,0.789
Female95+,,0.805,0.581
Male0-34,,0.068,1.104
Male35-44,,0.12,1.104
Male45-54,,0.19,1.104
Male55-59,,0.27,1.104
Male60-64,,0.342,1.104
Male65-69,,0.346,1.45
Male70-74,,0.453,1.238
Male75-79,,0.577,1.211
Male80-84,,0.657,1.209
Male85-89,,0.79,1.241
Male90-94,,0.901,1.049
Male95+,,1.035,0.836
Medicaid & Originally Disabled Interactions with Age & Sex
"Medicaid Female, Disabled",,0.221,0
"Medicaid Female, Aged",,0.183,0
"Medicaid Male, Disabled",,0.115,0
"Medicaid Male, Aged",,0.184,0
Originally-Disabled Female,,0.236,0
Originally-Disabled Male,,0.148,0
Disease Group Factors 1/
HCC1,HIV/AIDS,0.685,1.344
HCC2,Septicemia/Shock,0.89,0.946
HCC5,Opportunistic Infections,0.652,1.344
HCC7,Metastatic Cancer and Acute Leukemia,1.464,0.54
HCC 8,"Lung, Upper Digestive Tract, and Other Severe Cancers",1.464,0.54
HCC9,"Lymphatic, Head and Neck, Brain, and Other Major Cancers",0.69,0.452
HCC10,"Breast, Prostate, Colorectal and Other Cancers and Tumors",0.233,0.259
HCC15,Diabetes with Renal or Peripheral Circulatory Manifestation,0.764,0.612
HCC16,Diabetes with Neurologic or Other Specified Manifestation,0.552,0.612
HCC17,Diabetes with Acute Complications,0.391,0.612
HCC18,Diabetes with Ophthalmologic or Unspecified Manifestation,0.343,0.612
HCC19,Diabetes without Complication,0.2,0.255
HCC21,Protein-Calorie Malnutrition,0.922,0.427
HCC25,End-Stage Liver Disease,0.9,0.268
HCC26,Cirrhosis of Liver,0.516,0.268
HCC27,Chronic Hepatitis,0.359,0.268
HCC31,Intestinal Obstruction/Perforation,0.408,0.268
HCC32,Pancreatic Disease,0.445,0.268
HCC33,Inflammatory Bowel Disease,0.307,0.268
HCC37,Bone/Joint/Muscle Infections/Necrosis,0.496,0.495
HCC38,Rheumatoid Arthritis and Inflammatory Connective Disease Tissue,0.322,0.285
HCC44,Severe Hematological Disorders,1.011,0.448
HCC45,Disorders of Immunity,0.83,0.448
HCC51,Drug/Alcohol Psychosis,0.353,0.221
HCC52,Drug/Alcohol Dependence,0.265,0.221
HCC54,Schizophrenia,0.543,0.221
HCC55,"Major Depressive, Bipolar, and Paranoid Disorders",0.431,0.221
HCC67,Quadriplegia/Other Extensive Paralysis,1.181,0.098
HCC 68,Paraplegia,1.181,0.098
HCC69,Spinal Cord Disorders/Injuries,0.492,0.098
HCC70,Muscular Dystrophy,0.386,0.098
HCC71,Polyneuropathy,0.268,0.098
HCC72,Multiple Sclerosis,0.517,0.098
HCC73,Parkinson’s and Huntington’s Diseases,0.475,0.098
HCC74,Seizure Disorders and Convulsions,0.269,0.098
HCC75,"Coma, Brain Compression/Anoxic Damage",0.568,0.098
HCC77,Respirator Dependence/Tracheostomy Status,2.102,1.415
HCC78,Respiratory Arrest,1.429,1.415
HCC79,Cardio-Respiratory Failure and Shock,0.692,0.289
HCC80,Congestive Heart Failure,0.417,0.176
HCC81,Acute Myocardial Infarction ,0.348,0.288
HCC82,Unstable Angina and Other Acute Ischemic Heart Disease,0.348,0.288
HCC83,Angina Pectoris/Old Myocardial Infarction,0.235,0.288
HCC92,Specified Heart Arrhythmias,0.266,0.187
HCC95,Cerebral Hemorrhage,0.392,0.151
HCC96,Ischemic or Unspecified Stroke,0.306,0.151
HCC100,Hemiplegia/Hemiparesis,0.437,0.098
HCC101,Cerebral Palsy and Other Paralytic Syndromes,0.164,0.098
HCC104,Vascular Disease with Complications,0.677,0.509
HCC105,Vascular Disease,0.357,0.114
HCC107,Cystic Fibrosis,0.376,0.23
HCC 108,Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease,0.376,0.23
HCC111,Aspiration and Specified Bacterial Pneumonias,0.693,0.463
HCC112,"Pneumococcal Pneumonia, Empyema, Lung Abscess",0.202,0.463
HCC119,Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy and Vitreous Hemorrhage,0.349,0.995
HCC130,Dialysis Status,3.076,3.112
HCC131,Renal Failure,0.576,0.42
HCC132,Nephritis,0.273,0.42
HCC148,Decubitus Ulcer of Skin,1.03,0.317
HCC149,"Chronic Ulcer of Skin, Except Decubitus",0.484,0.262
HCC150,Extensive Third-Degree Burns,0.962,0.248
HCC154,Severe Head Injury,0.568,0.248
HCC155,Major Head Injury,0.242,0.248
HCC157,Vertebral Fractures without Spinal Cord Injury,0.49,0.098
HCC158,Hip Fracture/Dislocation,0.392,0.000 2/
HCC161,Traumatic Amputation ,0.843,0.248
HCC164,Major Complications of Medical Care and Trauma,0.262,0.263
HCC174,Major Organ Transplant Status,0.722,0.882
HCC176,Artificial Openings for Feeding or Elimination,0.79,0.882
HCC 177,"Amputation Status, Lower Limb/Amputation Complications",0.843,0.248
Disabled/Disease Interactions
D-HCC5,Disabled*Opportunistic Infections,0.789,0
D-HCC44,Disabled*Severe Hematological Disorders,0.893,0
D-HCC51,Disabled*Drug/Alcohol Psychosis,0.509,0
D-HCC52,Disabled*Drug/Alcohol Dependence,0.414,0
D-HCC107,Disabled*Cystic Fibrosis,1.861,0
Disease Interactions
INT1,DM*CHF 3/,0.253,0.207
INT2,DM*CVD,0.125,0
INT3,CHF*COPD,0.241,0.372
INT4,COPD*CVD*CAD,0.079,0
INT5,RF*CHF 3/,0.234,0
INT6,RF*CHF*DM 3/,0.864,0

NOTES
1/ Beneficiaries with HCC128 Kidney Transplant Status were excluded from the sample because they will be included in the ESRD model sample.
2/ Factor constrained to zero because it was negative.
"3/ Beneficiaries with the three-way interaction RF*CHF*DM are excluded from the two-way interactions DM*CHF and RF*CHF. Thus, the three-way interaction term RF*CHF*DM is not additive to the two-way interaction terms DM*CHF and RF*CHF.  Rather, it is hierarchical to, and excludes these interaction terms.  A beneficiary with all three conditions is not “credited” with the two-way interactions.  All other interaction terms are additive."
DM= diabetes mellitus (HCCs 15-19)
CHF= congestive heart failure (HCC 80)
COPD= chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HCC 108)
"CVD= cerebrovascular disease (HCCs 95-96, 100-101)"
CAD= coronary artery disease (HCCs 81-83)
RF= renal failure (HCC 131)

Source: RTI Analysis of 1999/2000 Medicare 5% Sample