NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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NBER Papers on Monetary Economics Program

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2021
w28872 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie
Martin Souchier
Ludwig Straub

Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Sizing up the Real Income Channel
w28870 Haelim Anderson
Kinda Cheryl Hachem
Simpson Zhang

Reallocating Liquidity to Resolve a Crisis: Evidence from the Panic of 1873
w28869 Rohan Kekre
Moritz Lenel

Monetary Policy, Redistribution, and Risk Premia
w28868 Bo Becker
Efraim Benmelech

The Resilience of the U.S. Corporate Bond Market During Financial Crises
w28854 Long Chen
Yadong Huang
Shumiao Ouyang
Wei Xiong

The Data Privacy Paradox and Digital Demand
w28843 Andreas Fuster
Aurel Hizmo
Lauren Lambie-Hanson
James Vickery
Paul S. Willen

How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
w28842 Briana Chang
Matthieu Gomez
Harrison Hong

Sorting Out the Real Effects of Credit Supply
w28836 Bernardo Candia
Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

The Inflation Expectations of U.S. Firms: Evidence from a new survey
w28806 Lars E.O. Svensson
Household Debt Overhang Did Hardly Cause a Larger Spending Fall during the Financial Crisis in the UK
w28777 Wenxin Du
Jesse Schreger

CIP Deviations, the Dollar, and Frictions in International Capital Markets
w28776 Lars E.O. Svensson
Household Debt Overhang Did Hardly Cause a Larger Spending Fall during the Financial Crisis in Australia
w28771 Yusuf Mercan
Benjamin Schoefer
Petr Sedláček

A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations
w28770 Preston Mui
Benjamin Schoefer

Reservation Raises: The Aggregate Labor Supply Curve at the Extensive Margin
w28767 Kilian Huber
Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany
w28766 Kilian Huber
Volker Lindenthal
Fabian Waldinger

Discrimination, Managers, and Firm Performance: Evidence from "Aryanizations" in Nazi Germany
w28764 Ana Babus
Kinda Cheryl Hachem

Regulation and Security Design in Concentrated Markets
w28749 Francesco Bianchi
Howard Kung
Roberto Gomez Cram

Using Social Media to Identify the Effects of Congressional Partisanship on Asset Prices
w28709 Cyrus Aghamolla
Pinar Karaca-Mandic
Xuelin Li
Richard T. Thakor

Merchants of Death: The Effect of Credit Supply Shocks on Hospital Outcomes
w28693 Susanto Basu
Giacomo Candian
Ryan Chahrour
Rosen Valchev

Risky Business Cycles
w28687 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Marco C. Sammon

What Triggers Stock Market Jumps?
w28685 Cecilia R. Caglio
R. Matthew Darst
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan

Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Loans to SMEs and Large Firms
w28658 Alyssa G. Anderson
Wenxin Du
Bernd Schlusche

Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks
w28654 Makoto Nirei
José A. Scheinkman

Repricing Avalanches
w28639 Diego Aparicio
Zachary Metzman
Roberto Rigobon

The Pricing Strategies of Online Grocery Retailers
w28625 Olivier Coibion
Dimitris Georgarakos
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Geoff Kenny
Michael Weber

The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending
w28604 Francesco Bianchi
Cosmin L. Ilut
Hikaru Saijo

Implications of Diagnostic Expectations: Theory and Applications
w28599 Peter M. DeMarzo
Zhiguo He
Fabrice Tourre

Sovereign Debt Ratchets and Welfare Destruction
w28592 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Tho Pham
Oleksandr Talavera

The Voice of Monetary Policy
w28582 Yan Ji
Songyuan Teng
Robert Townsend

Branch Expansion versus Digital Banking: The Dynamics of Growth and Inequality in a Spatial Equilibrium Model
w28571 S. Borağan Aruoba
Marko Mlikota
Frank Schorfheide
Sergio Villalvazo

SVARs With Occasionally-Binding Constraints
w28473 Thomas J. Sargent
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Stochastic Earnings Growth and Equilibrium Wealth Distributions
w28540 Saki Bigio
Yuliy Sannikov

A Model of Credit, Money, Interest, and Prices
w28538 Laurence M. Ball
N. Gregory Mankiw

Market Power in Neoclassical Growth Models
w28536 Alina Carare
Carlos de Resende
Andrew T. Levin
Chelsea Zhang

Do Monetary Policy Frameworks Matter in Low Income Countries?
w28489 Gaetano Gaballo
Guillermo Ordoñez

The Two Faces of Information
w28485 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
w28464 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi

The Analytic Theory of a Monetary Shock
w28452 Jay C. Shambaugh
Michael R. Strain

The Recovery From The Great Recession: A Long, Evolving Expansion
w28445 Ayşegül Şahin
Murat Tasci
Jin Yan

Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections
w28437 Michael D. Bordo
John V. Duca

How the New Fed Municipal Bond Facility Capped Muni-Treasury Yield Spreads in the Covid-19 Recession
w28435 Anusha Chari
Lakshita Jain
Nirupama Kulkarni

The Unholy Trinity: Regulatory Forbearance, Stressed Banks and Zombie Firms
w28426 Alp Simsek
The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation
w28412 Sewon Hur
César Sosa-Padilla
Zeynep Yom

Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises
w28404 Raphael Auer
Ariel Burstein
Sarah M. Lein

Exchange Rates and Prices: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation
w28390 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Oleksandr Talavera
Nam Hoai Vu

Quality and Price Setting of High-Tech Goods
w28366 Tobias Broer
Per Krusell
Erik Öberg

Fiscal Multipliers: A Heterogenous-Agent Perspective
w28346 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Keynesian Production Networks and the Covid-19 Crisis: A Simple Benchmark
w28345 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi
Kunal Sangani

The Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy
2020
w28306 Jonathan H. Wright
Event-day Options
w28304 Francesco Bianchi
Giada Bianchi
Dongho Song

The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates
w28300 Harald Uhlig
Taojun Xie

Parallel Digital Currencies and Sticky Prices
w28292 Juan C. Hatchondo
Leonardo Martinez
César Sosa-Padilla

Sovereign Debt Standstills
w28276 Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
Informal Central Bank Communication
w28225 Oleg Itskhoki
The Story of the Real Exchange Rate
w28213 Xing Guo
Pablo Ottonello
Diego J. Perez

Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies
w28204 Xavier Gabaix
Ralph S. J. Koijen

Granular Instrumental Variables
w28201 Patrick J. Kehoe
Pierlauro Lopez
Virgiliu Midrigan
Elena Pastorino

Credit Frictions in the Great Recession
w28197 Òscar Jordà
Martin Kornejew
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
w28195 Michael D. Bordo
Mickey D. Levy

Do Enlarged Fiscal Deficits Cause Inflation: The Historical Record
w28186 Bernard Dumas
Marcel Savioz

A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities
w28184 Anna Cieslak
Hao Pang

Common Shocks in Stocks and Bonds
w28151 Olivia S. Kim
Jonathan A. Parker
Antoinette Schoar

Revenue Collapses and the Consumption of Small Business Owners in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic
w28145 Fernando E. Alvarez
David O. Argente

On the Effects of the Availability of Means of Payments: The Case of Uber
w28133 Fernando E. Alvarez
David O. Argente

Consumer Surplus of Alternative Payment Methods: Paying Uber with Cash
w28124 Laurence M. Ball
Liquidity Risk at Large U.S. Banks
w28119 Sebastian Infante
Guillermo Ordoñez

The Collateral Link between Volatility and Risk Sharing
w28118 Zhiguo He
Jing Huang
Jidong Zhou

Open Banking: Credit Market Competition When Borrowers Own the Data
w28117 Florin O. Bilbiie
Tommaso Monacelli
Roberto Perotti

Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Helicopter View
w28114 Tetyana Balyuk
Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala
Manju Puri

Indirect Costs of Government Aid and Intermediary Supply Effects: Lessons From the Paycheck Protection Program
w28108 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Will the Secular Decline In Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?
w28097 Michael D. Bordo
John V. Duca

How New Fed Corporate Bond Programs Dampened the Financial Accelerator in the Covid-19 Recession
w28092 Kaiji Chen
Qing Wang
Tong Xu
Tao Zha

Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of LTV Policy: Evidence from China's Micro Data
w28080 Xavier Cirera
Diego A. Comin
Marcio Cruz
Kyung Min Lee

Technology Within and Across Firms
w28075 Rava Azeredo da Silveira
Yeji Sung
Michael Woodford

Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts
w28066 Alisdair McKay
Johannes F. Wieland

Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand
w28055 Joshua K. Hausman
Paul W. Rhode
Johannes F. Wieland

Farm Product Prices, Redistribution, and the Early U.S. Great Depression
w28044 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Political Polarization and Expected Economic Outcomes
w28039 Gene Amromin
Neil Bhutta
Benjamin J. Keys

Refinancing, Monetary Policy, and the Credit Cycle
w28032 R. Glenn Hubbard
Michael R. Strain

Has the Paycheck Protection Program Succeeded?
w28028 Jonathan A. Parker
Antoinette Schoar
Yang Sun

Retail Financial Innovation and Stock Market Dynamics: The Case of Target Date Funds
w28021 Marco Di Maggio
Vincent Yao

Fintech Borrowers: Lax-Screening or Cream-Skimming?
w28016 Nathan Foley-Fisher
Gary B. Gorton
Stéphane Verani

Adverse Selection Dynamics in Privately-Produced Safe Debt Markets
w28015 Anthony M. Diercks
Jonathan Rawls
Eric Sims

Bury the Gold Standard? A Quantitative Exploration
w28014 Christiane Baumeister
Pierre Guérin

A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth
w28008 Diego A. Comin
Javier Quintana Gonzalez
Tom G. Schmitz
Antonella Trigari

Measuring TFP: The Role of Profits, Adjustment Costs, and Capacity Utilization
w28005 Jonathon Hazell
Juan Herreño
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States
w28001 Hang Bai
Lu Zhang

Searching for the Equity Premium
w27991 S. Borağan Aruoba
Pablo Cuba-Borda
Kenji Higa-Flores
Frank Schorfheide
Sergio Villalvazo

Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints
w27964 Ross Levine
Chen Lin
Mingzhu Tai
Wensi Xie

How Did Depositors Respond to COVID-19?
w27961 Scott R. Baker
Aniket Baksy
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Jonathan A. Rodden

Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty
w27958 Ariel Burstein
Vasco M. Carvalho
Basile Grassi

Bottom-up Markup Fluctuations
w27957 Diego A. Comin
Robert C. Johnson

Offshoring and Inflation
w27945 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Olivier Darmouni
Stephan Luck
Matthew C. Plosser

Bank Liquidity Provision Across the Firm Size Distribution
w27935 Juliane Begenau
Saki Bigio
Jeremy Majerovitz
Matias Vieyra

A Q-Theory of Banks
w27926 Mary Amiti
Oleg Itskhoki
Jozef Konings

Dominant Currencies: How Firms Choose Currency Invoicing and Why it Matters
w27917 Rafael Guntin
Pablo Ottonello
Diego Perez

The Micro Anatomy of Macro Consumption Adjustments
w27898 Michael D. Bordo
Monetary Policy Cooperation/Coordination and Global Financial Crises in Historical Perspective
w27883 Vincent Glode
Christian Opp

Renegotiation in Debt Chains
w27878 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Sergey K. Egiev
Alessandro Lin
Josef Platzer
Luca Riva

A Toolkit for Solving Models with a Lower Bound on Interest Rates of Stochastic Duration
w27876 Christopher D. Carroll
Edmund Crawley
Jiri Slacalek
Matthew N. White

Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act
w27872 Sebastián Fanelli
Ludwig Straub

A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions
w27864 Ian Dew-Becker
Stefano Giglio

Cross-Sectional Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Evidence from 40 Years of Options Data
w27861 Erica X.N. Li
Tao Zha
Ji Zhang
Hao Zhou

Does Fiscal Policy Matter for Stock-Bond Return Correlation?
w27856 Carolin Pflueger
Gianluca Rinaldi

Why Does the Fed Move Markets so Much? A Model of Monetary Policy and Time-Varying Risk Aversion
w27849 Brian Fabo
Martina Jančoková
Elisabeth Kempf
Ľuboš Pástor

Fifty Shades of QE: Comparing Findings of Central Bankers and Academics
w27847 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Tony Zhang

The Economics of Currency Risk
w27844 Kimberly A. Berg
Nelson C. Mark

Uncertainty, Long-Run, and Monetary Policy Risks in a Two-Country Macro Model
w27836 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Edward S. Knotek II
Raphael Schoenle

Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations
w27833 Georgij Alekseev
Safaa Amer
Manasa Gopal
Theresa Kuchler
JW Schneider
Johannes Stroebel
Nils C. Wernerfelt

The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: Evidence from Owners, Managers, and Employees
w27820 Cosmin L. Ilut
Rosen Valchev

Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers
w27819 Refet S. Gürkaynak
A. Hakan Kara
Burçin Kısacıkoğlu
Sang Seok Lee

Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior
w27815 Qi Chen
Itay Goldstein
Zeqiong Huang
Rahul Vashishtha

Liquidity Transformation and Fragility in the US Banking Sector
w27810 Lin William Cong
Ye Li
Neng Wang

Token-Based Platform Finance
w27809 Simon Gilchrist
Bin Wei
Vivian Z. Yue
Egon Zakrajšek

The Fed Takes on Corporate Credit Risk: An Analysis of the Efficacy of the SMCCF
w27800 Bernardo Candia
Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents
w27794 Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Giovanni L. Violante

The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S.
w27786 Zhengyang Jiang
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt
w27771 Michele Lenza
Giorgio E. Primiceri

How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020
w27768 Michael Woodford
Effective Demand Failures and the Limits of Monetary Stabilization Policy
w27765 Mohammad Akbarpour
Julien Combe
Yinghua He
Victor Hiller
Robert Shimer
Olivier Tercieux

Unpaired Kidney Exchange: Overcoming Double Coincidence of Wants without Money
w27763 Kaiji Chen
Haoyu Gao
Patrick C. Higgins
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

Monetary Stimulus Amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data
w27748 Andrew T. Levin
Arunima Sinha

Limitations on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Forward Guidance in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27747 Jesse Perla
Carolin Pflueger
Michal Szkup

Doubling Down on Debt: Limited Liability as a Financial Friction
w27746 Kristin Forbes
Ida Hjortsoe
Tsvetelina Nenova

International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through
w27742 Andrew B. Abel
Stavros Panageas

Social Distancing, Vaccination and the Paradoxical Optimality of an Endemic Equilibrium
w27739 Julien Acalin
Alessandro Rebucci

Global Business and Financial Cycles: A Tale of Two Capital Account Regimes
w27733 Qian Chen
Christoffer Koch
Padma Sharma
Gary Richardson

Payments Crises and Consequences
w27732 Saki Bigio
Liyan Shi

Repurchase Options in the Market for Lemons
w27721 Haelim Anderson
Selman Erol
Guillermo Ordoñez

Interbank Networks in the Shadows of the Federal Reserve Act
w27712 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect
w27703 Eric Hilt
Matthew S. Jaremski
Wendy Rahn

When Uncle Sam Introduced Main Street to Wall Street: Liberty Bonds and the Transformation of American Finance
w27698 Kristin J. Forbes
The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy
w27693 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?
w27691 Michael D. Bordo
Joseph G. Haubrich

Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve
w27682 Zhengyang Jiang
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Hanno Lustig

Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle
w27676 John Y. Campbell
Nuno Clara
João F. Cocco

Structuring Mortgages for Macroeconomic Stability
w27669 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Marc Giannoni

Medium-Term Money Neutrality and the Effective Lower Bound
w27663 Sebastian Heise
Fatih Karahan
Ayşegül Şahin

The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage-Price Pass-Through
w27657 Martín Uribe
Staggered Price Indexation
w27647 Andres Drenik
Diego Perez

Domestic Price Dollarization in Emerging Economies
w27646 Marco Di Maggio
Amir Kermani
Rodney Ramcharan
Vincent Yao
Edison Yu

The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
w27642 Amir Kermani
Yueran Ma

Asset Specificity of Non-Financial Firms
w27641 Amir Kermani
Yueran Ma

Two Tales of Debt
w27639 Alok Johri
Shahed Khan
César Sosa-Padilla

Interest Rate Uncertainty and Sovereign Default Risk
w27634 Sarah Allen
Srđjan Čapkun
Ittay Eyal
Giulia Fanti
Bryan A. Ford
James Grimmelmann
Ari Juels
Kari Kostiainen
Sarah Meiklejohn
Andrew Miller
Eswar Prasad
Karl Wüst
Fan Zhang

Design Choices for Central Bank Digital Currency: Policy and Technical Considerations
w27629 Robert P. Bartlett III
Adair Morse

Small Business Survival Capabilities and Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Oakland
w27627 Roberto Perotti
Understanding the German Criticism of the Target System and the Role of Central Bank capital
w27617 Natalie Bachas
Peter Ganong
Pascal J. Noel
Joseph S. Vavra
Arlene Wong
Diana Farrell
Fiona E. Greig

Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data
w27610 Michael J. Fishman
Jonathan A. Parker
Ludwig Straub

A Dynamic Theory of Lending Standards
w27559 Antonio Falato
Itay Goldstein
Ali Hortaçsu

Financial Fragility in the COVID-19 Crisis: The Case of Investment Funds in Corporate Bond Markets
w27552 Peter Ganong
Damon Jones
Pascal J. Noel
Fiona E. Greig
Diana Farrell
Chris Wheat

Wealth, Race, and Consumption Smoothing of Typical Income Shocks
w27537 Viral V. Acharya
Lea Borchert
Maximilian Jager
Sascha Steffen

Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector
w27536 Olivier Wang
Iván Werning

Dynamic Oligopoly and Price Stickiness
w27521 Michael Woodford
Yinxi Xie

Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight
w27491 Ricardo Correa
Wenxin Du
Gordon Y. Liao

U.S. Banks and Global Liquidity
w27486 Adrien Auclert
Bence Bardóczy
Matthew Rognlie

MPCs, MPEs and Multipliers: A Trilemma for New Keynesian Models
w27481 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Andrea Prestipino

Credit Booms, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy
w27474 Matteo Cacciatore
Fabio Ghironi

Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy
w27464 Jennifer La'O
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

Optimal Monetary Policy in Production Networks
w27461 Efraim Benmelech
Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis
w27447 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Reviving the Salter-Swan Small Open Economy Model
w27434 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi
Aleksei Oskolkov

The Macroeconomics of Sticky Prices with Generalized Hazard Functions
w27431 Raj Chetty
John N. Friedman
Nathaniel Hendren
Michael Stepner
The Opportunity Insights Team

The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data
w27420 Mario J. Crucini
Mototsugu Shintani
Takayuki Tsuruga

A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
w27418 David Altig
Scott R. Baker
Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Philip Bunn
Scarlet Chen
Steven J. Davis
Julia Leather
Brent H. Meyer
Emil Mihaylov
Paul Mizen
Nicholas B. Parker
Thomas Renault
Pawel Smietanka
Greg Thwaites

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27416 Zhiguo He
Stefan Nagel
Zhaogang Song

Treasury Inconvenience Yields during the COVID-19 Crisis
w27406 Francesco Bianchi
Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma

Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
w27399 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

Managing Households' Expectations with Unconventional Policies
w27396 Robin Greenwood
Samuel G. Hanson
Andrei Shleifer
Jakob Ahm Sørensen

Predictable Financial Crises
w27394 Hie Joo Ahn
James D. Hamilton

Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment
w27386 Roberto M. Billi
Jordi Galí

Gains from wage Flexibility and the Zero Lower Bound
w27385 Jordi Galí
Insider-Outsider Labor Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy
w27384 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Does Policy Communication During Covid Work?
w27369 Michael D. Bordo
Andrew T. Levin
Mickey D. Levy

Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve's Policy Strategy and Communications
w27367 Jules H. van Binsbergen
Duration-Based Stock Valuation: Reassessing Stock Market Performance and Volatility
w27366 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Inequality, Fiscal Policy and COVID19 Restrictions in a Demand-Determined Economy
w27355 Mahyar Kargar
Benjamin Lester
David Lindsay
Shuo Liu
Pierre-Olivier Weill
Diego Zúñiga

Corporate Bond Liquidity During the COVID-19 Crisis
w27352 Alberto Cavallo
Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets
w27343 Sebastian Horn
Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending
w27342 Ralph S. J. Koijen
Motohiro Yogo

Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System
w27339 Jonathan S. Hartley
Alessandro Rebucci
Daniel Jiménez

An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies
w27332 Takeo Hoshi
Anil K Kashyap

The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan
w27323 Javier Bianchi
César Sosa-Padilla

Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk
w27317 Philippe Andrade
Olivier Coibion
Erwan Gautier
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Aggregate Expectations
w27313 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets
w27308 George-Marios Angeletos
Zhen Huo
Karthik A. Sastry

Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory
w27295 Eric R. Sims
Jing Cynthia Wu

Wall Street vs. Main Street QE
w27272 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel
Stephen Utkus

Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash
w27266 Yan Liu
Jing Cynthia Wu

Reconstructing the Yield Curve
w27258 Yifei Wang
Toni M. Whited
Yufeng Wu
Kairong Xiao

Bank Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Structural Estimation
w27244 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi
Michael J. Mina
James H. Stock

Reopening Scenarios
w27216 Peter Ganong
Pascal J. Noel
Joseph S. Vavra

US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic
w27214 Kaiji Chen
Patrick C. Higgins
Tao Zha

Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
w27207 Vadim Elenev
Tim Landvoigt
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?
w27182 Evan M. Munro
Serena Ng

Latent Dirichlet Analysis of Categorical Survey Expectations
w27171 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

China's Model of Managing the Financial System
w27168 Valentin Haddad
Alan Moreira
Tyler Muir

When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed's Response
w27158 Viral V. Acharya
Matteo Crosignani
Tim Eisert
Christian Eufinger

Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe
w27152 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis
w27141 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending
w27136 Richard K. Lyons
Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj

What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?
w27116 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Sebastian A. Merkel
Yuliy Sannikov

The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble
w27112 Francesco Bianchi
Renato Faccini
Leonardo Melosi

Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength
w27095 João Granja
Christos Makridis
Constantine Yannelis
Eric Zwick

Did the Paycheck Protection Program Hit the Target?
w27084 Fabio Ghironi
G. Kemal Ozhan

Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool
w27077 Manuel Adelino
Miguel A. Ferreira
Mariassunta Giannetti
Pedro Pires

Trade Credit and the Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy
w27067 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner

Original Sin and the Great Depression
w27065 Jonathan S. Hartley
Urban Jermann

Should the U.S. Government Issue Floating Rate Notes?
w27056 Victoria Ivashina
Luc Laeven
Enrique Moral-Benito

Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel
w27051 Christopher Hansman
Harrison Hong
Áureo de Paula
Vishal Singh

A Sticky-Price View of Hoarding
w27044 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs: Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a "Covid-19" Shock
w27036 Masahiro Yamada
Takatoshi Ito

Price Discovery and Liquidity Recovery: Forex Market Reactions to Macro Announcements
w27034 Lydia Cox
Gernot Müller
Ernesto Pastén
Raphael Schoenle
Michael Weber

Big G
w27026 J. Carter Braxton
Kyle F. Herkenhoff
Gordon M. Phillips

Can the Unemployed Borrow? Implications for Public Insurance
w27025 John Y. Campbell
Roman Sigalov

Portfolio Choice with Sustainable Spending: A Model of Reaching for Yield
w27017 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View
w27014 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Advances in Structural Vector Autoregressions with Imperfect Identifying Information
w27013 Michael D. Bauer
Eric T. Swanson

The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the "Fed Information Effect"
w27004 Marco Bassetto
Thomas J. Sargent

Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy
w27003 Marco Del Negro
Michele Lenza
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

What's up with the Phillips Curve?
w27001 Christiane Baumeister
Dimitris Korobilis
Thomas K. Lee

Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions
w26987 Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma
Serena Ng

COVID-19 and The Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters
w26985 Luigi Bocola
Guido Lorenzoni

Risk Sharing Externalities
w26974 Stavros Panageas
The Implications of Heterogeneity and Inequality for Asset Pricing
w26971 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Markus Schwedeler
Ahmed Tahoun

Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: COVID-19, SARS, and H1N1
w26962 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
w26954 Daniel Lewis
Karel Mertens
James H. Stock

U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
w26943 Joseph Kopecky
Alan M. Taylor

The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium
w26941 Atif R. Mian
Ludwig Straub
Amir Sufi

The Saving Glut of the Rich
w26940 Atif R. Mian
Ludwig Straub
Amir Sufi

Indebted Demand
w26939 James S. Cloyne
Òscar Jordà
Alan M. Taylor

Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier
w26935 Gianluca Benigno
Andrew Foerster
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
w26934 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
w26918 Veronica Guerrieri
Guido Lorenzoni
Ludwig Straub
Iván Werning

Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?
w26908 Matthew Baron
Emil Verner
Wei Xiong

Banking Crises without Panics
w26907 Zhenyu Gao
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

Learning about the Neighborhood
w26903 Erica Jiang
Gregor Matvos
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru

Banking without Deposits: Evidence from Shadow Bank Call Reports
w26894 Anna Cieslak
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

The Economics of the Fed Put
w26881 Adam Guren
Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

What Do We Learn From Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?
w26872 Michael McCracken
Serena Ng

FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research
w26866 Robert J. Barro
José F. Ursúa
Joanna Weng

The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity
w26859 Kris James Mitchener
Gary Richardson

Contagion of Fear
w26855 Antonio Coppola
Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens
w26852 R. Jason Faberman
Andreas I. Mueller
Ayşegül Şahin
Giorgio Topa

The Shadow Margins of Labor Market Slack
w26838 Dean Corbae
Pablo D'Erasmo

Rising Bank Concentration
w26837 Francesco D’Acunto
Ulrike Malmendier
Michael Weber

Gender Roles and the Gender Expectations Gap
w26833 Klaus Adam
Michael Woodford

Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Housing
w26829 Christoph Boehm
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Convex Supply Curves
w26826 Michael D. Cai
Marco Del Negro
Edward P. Herbst
Ethan Matlin
Reca Sarfati
Frank Schorfheide

Online Estimation of DSGE Models
w26820 Peter Bednarek
Daniel Marcel te Kaat
Chang Ma
Alessandro Rebucci

Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms
w26817 Francesco D’Acunto
Thomas Rauter
Christoph K. Scheuch
Michael Weber

Perceived Precautionary Savings Motives: Evidence from FinTech
w26816 Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

A Model of Cryptocurrencies
w26800 Greg Kaplan
Piotr Zoch

Markups, Labor Market Inequality and the Nature of Work
w26799 Efraim Benmelech
Nitish Kumar
Raghuram Rajan

Secured Credit Spreads and the Issuance of Secured Debt
w26797 Jordi Galí
Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance, and the Exchange Rate
w26796 Jordi Galí
Monetary Policy and Bubbles in a New Keynesian Model with Overlapping Generations
w26792 Hanming Fang
Yongqin Wang
Xian Wu

The Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from China
w26791 Narayana R. Kocherlakota
21st Century Macro
w26778 Olivier Coibion
Dimitris Georgarakos
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Forward Guidance and Household Expectations
w26760 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Why Is the Euro Punching Below Its Weight?
w26756 Ricardo Lagos
Shengxing Zhang

The Limits of onetary Economics: On Money as a Latent Medium of Exchange
w26745 John H. Cochrane
A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt
w26743 Benjamin M. Hébert
Michael Woodford

Neighborhood-Based Information Costs
w26701 Marco Cipriani
Ana Fostel
Daniel Houser

Leverage and Asset Prices: An Experiment.
w26695 Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi
Gustavo S. Cortes
Marc D. Weidenmier

Regional Monetary Policies and the Great Depression
w26689 Anil K. Kashyap
Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
Alexandros P. Vardoulakis

Optimal Bank Regulation In the Presence of Credit and Run-Risk
w26672 David Romer
In Praise of Confidence Intervals
w26671 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel P. Mihalache

Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)
w26666 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
w26663 Gary B. Gorton
Private Money Production without Banks
w26657 Lars E.O. Svensson
Monetary Policy Strategies for the Federal Reserve
w26655 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Effects of Fiscal Policy on Credit Markets
w26650 N. Gregory Mankiw
A Skeptic's Guide to Modern Monetary Theory
w26647 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie
Ludwig Straub

Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in an Estimated HANK Model
w26646 Diego Aparicio
Roberto Rigobon

Quantum Prices
w26630 Jiri Slacalek
Oreste Tristani
Giovanni L. Violante

Household Balance Sheet Channels of Monetary Policy: A Back of the Envelope Calculation for the Euro Area
w26606 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions
w26602 Shang-Jin Wei
Yinxi Xie

Monetary Policy in an Era of Global Supply Chains

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