NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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NBER Papers on International Finance and Macroeconomics Program

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2021
w28872 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie
Martin Souchier
Ludwig Straub

Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Sizing up the Real Income Channel
w28839 Melissa C. Chow
Teresa C. Fort
Christopher Goetz
Nathan Goldschlag
James Lawrence
Elisabeth Ruth Perlman
Martha Stinson
T. Kirk White

Redesigning the Longitudinal Business Database
w28834 Maryam Farboodi
Péter Kondor

Heterogeneous Global Booms and Busts
w28827 Julian di Giovanni
Galina Hale

Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
w28806 Lars E.O. Svensson
Household Debt Overhang Did Hardly Cause a Larger Spending Fall during the Financial Crisis in the UK
w28777 Wenxin Du
Jesse Schreger

CIP Deviations, the Dollar, and Frictions in International Capital Markets
w28776 Lars E.O. Svensson
Household Debt Overhang Did Hardly Cause a Larger Spending Fall during the Financial Crisis in Australia
w28740 Joshua Aizenman
Yothin Jinjarak
Hien Thi Kim Nguyen
Donghyun Park

Large Fiscal Episodes and Sustainable Development: Some International Evidence
w28694 Bruno Pellegrino
Enrico Spolaore
Romain Wacziarg

Barriers to Global Capital Allocation
w28687 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Marco C. Sammon

What Triggers Stock Market Jumps?
w28685 Cecilia R. Caglio
R. Matthew Darst
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan

Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Loans to SMEs and Large Firms
w28658 Alyssa G. Anderson
Wenxin Du
Bernd Schlusche

Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks
w28646 Samara R. Gunter
Daniel Riera-Crichton
Carlos A. Vegh
Guillermo Vuletin

Policy Implications of Non-Linear Effects of Tax Changes on Output
w28639 Diego Aparicio
Zachary Metzman
Roberto Rigobon

The Pricing Strategies of Online Grocery Retailers
w28636 Roberto Chang
Humberto Martínez
Andrés Velasco

Pandemics, Incentives, and Economic Policy: A Dynamic Model
w28635 Tiago V. Cavalcanti
Joseph P. Kaboski
Bruno S. Martins
Cezar Santos

Dispersion in Financing Costs and Development
w28629 Alexander Chudik
M. Hashem Pesaran
Alessandro Rebucci

COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing
w28613 Daniel L. Greenwald
Matteo Leombroni
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Financial and Total Wealth Inequality with Declining Interest Rates
w28608 Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Ilhyock Shim
Xiaoxi Liu

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage
w28599 Peter M. DeMarzo
Zhiguo He
Fabrice Tourre

Sovereign Debt Ratchets and Welfare Destruction
w28598 Kris James Mitchener
Christoph Trebesch

Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward
w28585 Joshua Aizenman
Hiro Ito
Gurnain Kaur Pasricha

Central Bank Swap Arrangements in the COVID-19 Crisis
w28558 Assaf Razin
Efraim Sadka

Migration and Redistribution: Federal Governance of an Economic Union Matters
w28527 Benjamin Friedrich
Lisa Laun
Costas Meghir

Income Dynamics in Sweden 1985-2016
w28521 Luciana Galeano
Alejandro Izquierdo
Jorge P. Puig
Carlos A. Vegh
Guillermo Vuletin

Can Automatic Government Spending Be Procyclical?
w28520 Sebastian Edwards
Luis Cabezas

Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Monetary Policy, and Real Exchange Rates: Iceland and the 2008 Crisis
w28462 Guilhem Cassan
Daniel Keniston
Tatjana Kleineberg

A Division of Laborers: Identity and Efficiency in India
w28453 Anton Korinek
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Artificial Intelligence, Globalization, and Strategies for Economic Development
w28452 Jay C. Shambaugh
Michael R. Strain

The Recovery From The Great Recession: A Long, Evolving Expansion
w28447 Charles Engel
Steve Pak Yeung Wu

Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century
w28435 Anusha Chari
Lakshita Jain
Nirupama Kulkarni

The Unholy Trinity: Regulatory Forbearance, Stressed Banks and Zombie Firms
w28426 Alp Simsek
The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation
w28420 Charles Engel
Ekaterina Kazakova
Mengqi Wang
Nan Xiang

A Reconsideration of the Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity for the U.S. Dollar
w28418 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Veronika Penciakova
Nick Sander

COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 "Time Bomb"?
w28415 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Economic Fluctuations and Pseudo-Wealth
w28412 Sewon Hur
César Sosa-Padilla
Zeynep Yom

Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises
w28404 Raphael Auer
Ariel Burstein
Sarah M. Lein

Exchange Rates and Prices: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation
w28395 Cem Çakmaklı
Selva Demiralp
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Sevcan Yeşiltaş
Muhammed A. Yıldırım

The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks
w28392 Angus Deaton
COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality
w28339 Assaf Razin
Globalization and Global Crises: Rest of the World vs. Israel
w28320 Steven J. Davis
Dingqian Liu
Xuguang Simon Sheng

Stock Prices, Lockdowns, and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus
w28315 Rafael Dix-Carneiro
João Paulo Pessoa
Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles
Sharon Traiberman

Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Labor Market Adjustment
2020
w28309 Alvaro Garcia Marin
Andrei V. Potlogea
Nico Voigtländer
Yang Yang

Cities, Productivity, and Trade
w28302 Jeremy Fouliard
Michael Howell
Hélène Rey

Answering the Queen: Machine Learning and Financial Crises
w28301 Marta A. Santamaría
Jaume Ventura
Uğur Yeşilbayraktar

Borders within Europe
w28300 Harald Uhlig
Taojun Xie

Parallel Digital Currencies and Sticky Prices
w28292 Juan C. Hatchondo
Leonardo Martinez
César Sosa-Padilla

Sovereign Debt Standstills
w28281 Misha Galashin
Martin Kanz
Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Macroeconomic Expectations and Credit Card Spending
w28274 Dominick Bartelme
Ting Lan
Andrei A. Levchenko

Specialization, Market Access and Real Income
w28260 Mikhail Chernov
Magnus Dahlquist
Lars A. Lochstoer

Pricing Currency Risks
w28247 Enrique G. Mendoza
Eugenio I. Rojas
Linda L. Tesar
Jing Zhang

A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality and the Output-Pandemia Tradeoff
w28232 Joshua Aizenman
Hiro Ito

U.S. Macro Policies and Global Economic Challenges
w28231 Gerard Hoberg
Yuan Li
Gordon M. Phillips

Internet Access and U.S. - China Innovation Competition
w28225 Oleg Itskhoki
The Story of the Real Exchange Rate
w28213 Xing Guo
Pablo Ottonello
Diego J. Perez

Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies
w28204 Xavier Gabaix
Ralph S. J. Koijen

Granular Instrumental Variables
w28201 Patrick J. Kehoe
Pierlauro Lopez
Virgiliu Midrigan
Elena Pastorino

Credit Frictions in the Great Recession
w28197 Òscar Jordà
Martin Kornejew
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
w28182 Mario J. Crucini
Oscar O'Flaherty

Stay-at-Home Orders in a Fiscal Union
w28177 Angus Deaton
Paul Schreyer

GDP, Wellbeing, and Health: Thoughts on the 2017 Round of the International Comparison Program
w28176 Viral V. Acharya
Zhengyang Jiang
Robert J. Richmond
Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden

Divided We Fall: International Health and Trade Coordination During a Pandemic
w28170 Chong-En Bai
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng Michael Song
Xin Wang

Special Deals from Special Investors: The Rise of State-Connected Private Owners in China
w28149 Michael B. Devereux
Karine Gente
Changhua Yu

Production Networks and International Fiscal Spillovers
w28126 Assaf Razin
Migration and Fiscal Externality: US vs. Europe
w28123 Julian di Giovanni
Andrei A. Levchenko
Isabelle Mejean

Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations
w28119 Sebastian Infante
Guillermo Ordoñez

The Collateral Link between Volatility and Risk Sharing
w28117 Florin O. Bilbiie
Tommaso Monacelli
Roberto Perotti

Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Helicopter View
w28115 Pol Antràs
De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age
w28108 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Will the Secular Decline In Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?
w28097 Michael D. Bordo
John V. Duca

How New Fed Corporate Bond Programs Dampened the Financial Accelerator in the Covid-19 Recession
w28096 Viral V. Acharya
Siddharth Vij

Foreign Currency Borrowing of Corporations as Carry Trades: Evidence from India
w28087 Michael Sposi
Kei-Mu Yi
Jing Zhang

Trade Integration, Global Value Chains, and Capital Accumulation
w28079 J. Scott Davis
Michael B. Devereux
Changhua Yu

Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention
w28014 Christiane Baumeister
Pierre Guérin

A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth
w28001 Hang Bai
Lu Zhang

Searching for the Equity Premium
w27994 Sigurd Galaasen
Rustam Jamilov
Ragnar Juelsrud
Hélène Rey

Granular Credit Risk
w27992 Joseph E. Stiglitz
The Pandemic Economic Crisis, Precautionary Behavior, and Mobility Constraints: An Application of the Dynamic Disequilibrium Model with Randomness
w27988 Martin S. Eichenbaum
Miguel Godinho de Matos
Francisco Lima
Sergio Rebelo
Mathias Trabandt

How do People Respond to Small Probability Events with Large, Negative Consequences?
w27975 Sebastian Edwards
Milton Friedman and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries
w27966 Joshua Aizenman
Hiro Ito

Post COVID-19 Exit Strategies and Emerging Markets Economic Challenges
w27957 Diego A. Comin
Robert C. Johnson

Offshoring and Inflation
w27955 Natalie Bau
Adrien Matray

Misallocation and Capital Market Integration: Evidence From India
w27953 Benjamin M. Hébert
Externalities as Arbitrage
w27934 George A. Alessandria
Costas Arkolakis
Kim J. Ruhl

Firm Dynamics and Trade
w27929 Assaf Razin
De-globalization: Driven by Global Crises?
w27927 Anusha Chari
Karlye Dilts Stedman
Christian Lundblad

Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-on/Risk-off and Emerging Market Tail Risk
w27926 Mary Amiti
Oleg Itskhoki
Jozef Konings

Dominant Currencies: How Firms Choose Currency Invoicing and Why it Matters
w27923 Luis Felipe Céspedes
Roberto Chang

Optimal Foreign Reserves and Central Bank Policy Under Financial Stress
w27917 Rafael Guntin
Pablo Ottonello
Diego Perez

The Micro Anatomy of Macro Consumption Adjustments
w27914 Renee Bowen
J. Lawrence Broz

Designing an International Economic Order: A Research Agenda
w27903 Timo Daehler
Joshua Aizenman
Yothin Jinjarak

Emerging Markets Sovereign CDS Spreads During COVID-19: Economics versus Epidemiology News
w27901 Olivier Jeanne
Damiano Sandri

Global Financial Cycle and Liquidity Management
w27898 Michael D. Bordo
Monetary Policy Cooperation/Coordination and Global Financial Crises in Historical Perspective
w27883 Vincent Glode
Christian Opp

Renegotiation in Debt Chains
w27877 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Veronika Penciakova
Nick Sander

COVID-19 and SME Failures
w27873 Jan Bena
Serdar Dinc
Isil Erel

The International Propagation of Economic Downturns Through Multinational Companies: The Real Economy Channel
w27871 Mara Faccio
John J. McConnell

Impediments to the Schumpeterian Process in the Replacement of Large Firms
w27858 Milton Harris
Christian Opp
Marcus Opp

The Aggregate Demand for Bank Capital
w27855 Alexander Chudik
Kamiar Mohaddes
M. Hashem Pesaran
Mehdi Raissi
Alessandro Rebucci

A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model
w27847 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Tony Zhang

The Economics of Currency Risk
w27844 Kimberly A. Berg
Nelson C. Mark

Uncertainty, Long-Run, and Monetary Policy Risks in a Two-Country Macro Model
w27841 Anand Chopra
Michael B. Devereux
Amartya Lahiri

Pandemics Through the Lens of Occupations
w27840 Pol Antràs
Stephen J. Redding
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Globalization and Pandemics
w27831 Fernando Broner
Alberto Martin
Jaume Ventura

On Public Spending and Economic Unions
w27826 Eduardo Dávila
Optimal Financial Transaction Taxes
w27819 Refet S. Gürkaynak
A. Hakan Kara
Burçin Kısacıkoğlu
Sang Seok Lee

Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior
w27806 David O. Argente
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Munseob Lee

Measuring the Cost of Living in Mexico and the US
w27800 Bernardo Candia
Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents
w27794 Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Giovanni L. Violante

The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S.
w27786 Zhengyang Jiang
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt
w27772 Fernando Broner
Alberto Martin
Lorenzo Pandolfi
Tomas Williams

Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows
w27770 Yazan Al-Karablieh
Evangelos Koumanakos
Stefanie Stantcheva

Clearing the Bar: Improving Tax Compliance for Small Firms through Target Setting
w27746 Kristin Forbes
Ida Hjortsoe
Tsvetelina Nenova

International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through
w27744 Alexandr Kopytov
Nikolai Roussanov
Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

Cheap Thrills: the Price of Leisure and the Global Decline in Work Hours
w27739 Julien Acalin
Alessandro Rebucci

Global Business and Financial Cycles: A Tale of Two Capital Account Regimes
w27731 Francisco J. Buera
Joseph P. Kaboski
Martí Mestieri
Daniel G. O'Connor

The Stable Transformation Path
w27708 Anusha Chari
Peter Blair Henry
Hector Reyes

The Baker Hypothesis
w27698 Kristin J. Forbes
The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy
w27691 Michael D. Bordo
Joseph G. Haubrich

Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve
w27687 Diego Rojas
Carlos A. Vegh
Guillermo Vuletin

The Macroeconomic Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from a Narrative Approach
w27682 Zhengyang Jiang
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Hanno Lustig

Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle
w27675 Anusha Chari
Jennifer S. Rhee

The Return to Capital in Capital-Scarce Countries
w27654 Olivier Jeanne
Jeongwon Son

To What Extent Are Tariffs Offset By Exchange Rates?
w27652 Matteo Cacciatore
Nora Traum

Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers
w27648 Irem Demirci
Miguel A. Ferreira
Pedro Matos
Clemens Sialm

How Global is Your Mutual Fund? International Diversification from Multinationals
w27647 Andres Drenik
Diego Perez

Domestic Price Dollarization in Emerging Economies
w27639 Alok Johri
Shahed Khan
César Sosa-Padilla

Interest Rate Uncertainty and Sovereign Default Risk
w27634 Sarah Allen
Srđjan Čapkun
Ittay Eyal
Giulia Fanti
Bryan A. Ford
James Grimmelmann
Ari Juels
Kari Kostiainen
Sarah Meiklejohn
Andrew Miller
Eswar Prasad
Karl Wüst
Fan Zhang

Design Choices for Central Bank Digital Currency: Policy and Technical Considerations
w27630 Alessandro Barattieri
Matteo Cacciatore

Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks
w27627 Roberto Perotti
Understanding the German Criticism of the Target System and the Role of Central Bank capital
w27615 Robin Greenwood
Samuel G. Hanson
Jeremy C. Stein
Adi Sunderam

A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
w27589 Andrés Fernández
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter?
w27586 Martin Ellison
Sang Seok Lee
Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke

The Ends of 30 Big Depressions
w27547 Ricardo Correa
Linda S. Goldberg

Bank Complexity, Governance, and Risk
w27526 Dani Rodrik
Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-wing Populism
w27500 Mikhail Chernov
Drew D. Creal
Peter Hördahl

Sovereign Credit and Exchange Rate Risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Local Currency Bonds
w27491 Ricardo Correa
Wenxin Du
Gordon Y. Liao

U.S. Banks and Global Liquidity
w27482 Francis X. Diebold
Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession
w27474 Matteo Cacciatore
Fabio Ghironi

Trade, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy
w27470 Alexander F. Wagner
Richard J. Zeckhauser
Alexandre Ziegler

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Which Firms Won? Which Lost?
w27461 Efraim Benmelech
Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis
w27460 Stéphane Auray
Michael B. Devereux
Aurélien Eyquem

Trade Wars, Currency Wars
w27451 Yothin Jinjarak
Rashad Ahmed
Sameer Nair-Desai
Weining Xin
Joshua Aizenman

Pandemic Shocks and Fiscal-Monetary Policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 Dominance During January - June 2020
w27447 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Reviving the Salter-Swan Small Open Economy Model
w27431 Raj Chetty
John N. Friedman
Nathaniel Hendren
Michael Stepner
The Opportunity Insights Team

The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data
w27420 Mario J. Crucini
Mototsugu Shintani
Takayuki Tsuruga

A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
w27418 David Altig
Scott R. Baker
Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Philip Bunn
Scarlet Chen
Steven J. Davis
Julia Leather
Brent H. Meyer
Emil Mihaylov
Paul Mizen
Nicholas B. Parker
Thomas Renault
Pawel Smietanka
Greg Thwaites

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27416 Zhiguo He
Stefan Nagel
Zhaogang Song

Treasury Inconvenience Yields during the COVID-19 Crisis
w27412 Nicolas L. Bottan
Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices
w27411 Viral V. Acharya
Soumya Bhadury
Jay Surti

Financial Vulnerability and Risks to Growth in Emerging Markets
w27403 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Philippe Martin
Todd E. Messer

The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis
w27371 Felipe Saffie
Liliana Varela
Kei-Mu Yi

The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows
w27360 Laura Alfaro
Oscar Becerra
Marcela Eslava

EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms
w27352 Alberto Cavallo
Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets
w27350 Farid Farrokhi
Heitor S. Pellegrina

Global Trade and Margins of Productivity in Agriculture
w27343 Sebastian Horn
Carmen M. Reinhart
Christoph Trebesch

Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending
w27342 Ralph S. J. Koijen
Motohiro Yogo

Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System
w27339 Jonathan S. Hartley
Alessandro Rebucci
Daniel Jiménez

An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies
w27332 Takeo Hoshi
Anil K Kashyap

The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan
w27323 Javier Bianchi
César Sosa-Padilla

Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk
w27305 Xin Liu
Shang-Jin Wei
Yifan Zhou

A Liberalization Spillover: From Equities to Loans
w27289 Michael Barnett
Greg Buchak
Constantine Yannelis

Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty
w27281 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis
w27276 Jungho Lee
Shang-Jin Wei
Jianhuan Xu

The Welfare Cost of a Current Account Imbalance: A "Clean" Effect
w27275 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel P. Mihalache

Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets
w27272 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel
Stephen Utkus

Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash
w27239 Assaf Razin
Efraim Sadka
Alexander Horst Schwemmer

DEglobalizaion and Social Safety Nets in Post-Covid-19 Era: Textbook Macroeconomic Analysis
w27231 Patrick Augustin
Mikhail Chernov
Lukas Schmid
Dongho Song

The term structure of CIP violations
w27228 Luis Felipe Céspedes
Roberto Chang
Andrés Velasco

The Macroeconomics of a Pandemic: A Minimalist Model
w27224 Barthélémy Bonadio
Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic
w27221 Viral V. Acharya
Raghuram Rajan
Jack Shim

When is Debt Odious? A Theory of Repression and Growth Traps
w27213 Gonzalo Asis
Anusha Chari
Adam Haas

In Search of Distress Risk in Emerging Markets
w27207 Vadim Elenev
Tim Landvoigt
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?
w27199 Craig Burnside
Mario Cerrato
Zhekai Zhang

Foreign Exchange Order Flow as a Risk Factor
w27193 Anna Stansbury
Lawrence H. Summers

The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An explanation for the recent evolution of the American economy
w27191 Cem Çakmaklı
Selva Demiralp
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Sevcan Yesiltas
Muhammed A. Yildirim

COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows
w27185 Yothin Jinjarak
Rashad Ahmed
Sameer Nair-Desai
Weining Xin
Joshua Aizenman

Accounting for Global COVID-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020
w27171 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

China's Model of Managing the Financial System
w27167 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Stephen J. Terry

Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty
w27136 Richard K. Lyons
Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj

What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?
w27134 Laura Alfaro
Ester Faia
Nora Lamersdorf
Farzad Saidi

Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity
w27129 Chang Ma
Shang-Jin Wei

International Equity and Debt Flows: Composition, Crisis, and Controls
w27084 Fabio Ghironi
G. Kemal Ozhan

Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool
w27075 Konrad B. Burchardi
Thomas Chaney
Tarek Alexander Hassan
Lisa Tarquinio
Stephen J. Terry

Immigration, Innovation, and Growth
w26845 Joseph S. Shapiro
The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy
w27067 Michael D. Bordo
Christopher M. Meissner

Original Sin and the Great Depression
w27064 Christoph E. Boehm
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities
w27048 Laura Alfaro
Ester Faia
Ruth A. Judson
Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk
w27039 Alexander Chudik
M. Hashem Pesaran
Alessandro Rebucci

Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries
w27036 Masahiro Yamada
Takatoshi Ito

Price Discovery and Liquidity Recovery: Forex Market Reactions to Macro Announcements
w27030 Joshua Aizenman
Yothin Jinjarak
Donghyun Park
Huanhuan Zheng

Good-Bye Original Sin, Hello Risk On-Off, Financial Fragility, and Crises?
w27026 J. Carter Braxton
Kyle F. Herkenhoff
Gordon M. Phillips

Can the Unemployed Borrow? Implications for Public Insurance
w27020 Roberto Chang
Andrés Velasco

Economic Policy Incentives to Preserve Lives and Livelihoods
w27009 Zachary A. Bethune
Anton Korinek

Covid-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods
w27004 Marco Bassetto
Thomas J. Sargent

Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy
w27001 Christiane Baumeister
Dimitris Korobilis
Thomas K. Lee

Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions
w26998 Assaf Razin
Alexander Horst Schwemmer

Ageing-Driven Migration and Redistribution: Comparing Policy Regimes
w26997 Miguel Acosta-Henao
Laura Alfaro
Andrés Fernández

Sticky Capital Controls
w26995 Paul R. Bergin
Giancarlo Corsetti

The Macroeconomic Stabilization of Tariff Shocks: What is the Optimal Monetary Response?
w26971 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Markus Schwedeler
Ahmed Tahoun

Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: COVID-19, SARS, and H1N1
w26960 Michael Bailey
Abhinav Gupta
Sebastian Hillenbrand
Theresa Kuchler
Robert J. Richmond
Johannes Stroebel

International Trade and Social Connectedness
w26950 Laura Alfaro
Anusha Chari
Andrew N. Greenland
Peter K. Schott

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
w26939 James S. Cloyne
Òscar Jordà
Alan M. Taylor

Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier
w26935 Gianluca Benigno
Andrew Foerster
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
w26934 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
w26919 Laurence J. Kotlikoff
Felix Kubler
Andrey Polbin
Simon Scheidegger

Pareto-Improving Carbon-Risk Taxation
w26915 Javier Bianchi
Enrique G. Mendoza

A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature
w26908 Matthew Baron
Emil Verner
Wei Xiong

Banking Crises without Panics
w26905 Joshua Aizenman
Hiro Ito

The Political-Economy Trilemma
w26874 Maurice Obstfeld
Harry Johnson's "Case for Flexible Exchange Rates" - 50 Years Later
w26855 Antonio Coppola
Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens
w26851 Kristin J. Forbes
Francis E. Warnock

Capital Flow Waves--or Ripples? Extreme Capital Flow Movements Since the Crisis
w26843 Anusha Chari
The International Market for Corporate Control
w26829 Christoph Boehm
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Convex Supply Curves
w26820 Peter Bednarek
Daniel Marcel te Kaat
Chang Ma
Alessandro Rebucci

Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms
w26816 Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

A Model of Cryptocurrencies
w26814 Bomin Jiang
Roberto Rigobon
Munther A. Dahleh

Contingent Linear Financial Networks
w26803 Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Utilization-Adjusted TFP Across Countries: Measurement and Implications for International Comovement
w26798 Jongrim Ha
M. Ayhan Kose
Christopher Otrok
Eswar S. Prasad

Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
w26797 Jordi Galí
Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance, and the Exchange Rate
w26793 Graciela L. Kaminsky
Leandro Medina
Shiyi Wang

The Financial Center Leverage Cycle: Does it Spread Around the World?
w26792 Hanming Fang
Yongqin Wang
Xian Wu

The Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from China
w26773 Todd M. Hazelkorn
Tobias J. Moskowitz
Kaushik Vasudevan

Beyond Basis Basics: Liquidity Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price
w26760 Ethan Ilzetzki
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Why Is the Euro Punching Below Its Weight?
w26731 Richard Baldwin
Rikard Forslid

Globotics and Development: When Manufacturing is Jobless and Services are Tradable
w26714 Murillo Campello
Gustavo S. Cortes
Fabricio d'Almeida
Gaurav Kankanhalli

Exporting Uncertainty: The Impact of Brexit on Corporate America
w26706 Takatoshi Ito
Kenta Yamada
Misako Takayasu
Hideki Takayasu

Execution Risk and Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets
w26701 Marco Cipriani
Ana Fostel
Daniel Houser

Leverage and Asset Prices: An Experiment.
w26671 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel P. Mihalache

Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)
w26667 Harold L. Cole
Dirk Krueger
George J. Mailath
Yena Park

Social Capital: A Double-Edged Sword
w26666 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
w26646 Diego Aparicio
Roberto Rigobon

Quantum Prices
w26644 Takatoshi Ito
Tomoyoshi Yabu

Japanese Foreign Exchange Interventions, 1971-2018: Estimating a Reaction Function Using the Best Proxy
w26613 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Deterministic Debt Cycles in Open Economies with Flow Collateral Constraints
w26611 Kyle Handley
Fariha Kamal
Ryan Monarch

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism
w26609 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Ahmed Tahoun

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

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