NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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NBER Papers on Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program

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2021
w28876 Arjun Ramani
Nicholas Bloom

The Donut Effect of Covid-19 on Cities
w28872 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie
Martin Souchier
Ludwig Straub

Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Sizing up the Real Income Channel
w28871 Brian D. Bell
Nicholas Bloom
Jack Blundell

This Time is Not so Different: Income Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession
w28869 Rohan Kekre
Moritz Lenel

Monetary Policy, Redistribution, and Risk Premia
w28868 Bo Becker
Efraim Benmelech

The Resilience of the U.S. Corporate Bond Market During Financial Crises
w28853 Minsu Chang
Xiaohong Chen
Frank Schorfheide

Heterogeneity and Aggregate Fluctuations
w28851 Weiran Huang
Ashlyn Nelson
Stephen Ross

Foreclosure Spillovers within broad Neighborhoods
w28843 Andreas Fuster
Aurel Hizmo
Lauren Lambie-Hanson
James Vickery
Paul S. Willen

How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
w28837 Kenneth R. Ahern
Lei Kong
Xinyan Yan

The Conglomerate Network
w28836 Bernardo Candia
Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

The Inflation Expectations of U.S. Firms: Evidence from a new survey
w28831 Niklas Engbom
Christian Moser

Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil
w28829 Niklas Engbom
Contagious Unemployment
w28815 Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Antonio Falato
Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Human Capitalists
w28802 John C. Haltiwanger
Henry R. Hyatt
Erika McEntarfer
Matthew Staiger

Cyclical Worker Flows: Cleansing vs. Sullying
w28796 Stephen L. Ross
Tingyu Zhou

Loss Aversion in Housing Sales Prices: Evidence from Focal Point Bias
w28792 Sebastian Heise
Tommaso Porzio

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Spatial Frictions
w28781 Stephen L. Ross
Yuan Wang

High Cost Lenders and the Geographic Concentration of Foreclosures
w28772 Benjamin Schoefer
Oren Ziv

Productivity, Place, and Plants
w28771 Yusuf Mercan
Benjamin Schoefer
Petr Sedláček

A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations
w28770 Preston Mui
Benjamin Schoefer

Reservation Raises: The Aggregate Labor Supply Curve at the Extensive Margin
w28767 Kilian Huber
Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany
w28761 Jan De Loecker
Jan Eeckhout
Simon Mongey

Quantifying Market Power and Business Dynamism in the Macroeconomy
w28760 Andrew Atkeson
Behavior and the Dynamics of Epidemics
w28757 Audra Bowlus
Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant
Huju Liu
Lance Lochner
Youngmin Park

Four Decades of Canadian Earnings Inequality and Dynamics across Workers and Firms
w28754 David Baqaee
Ariel Burstein

Welfare and Output with Income Effects and Demand Instability
w28749 Francesco Bianchi
Howard Kung
Roberto Gomez Cram

Using Social Media to Identify the Effects of Congressional Partisanship on Asset Prices
w28747 Lee E. Ohanian
Musa Orak
Shihan Shen

Revisiting Capital-Skill Complementarity, Inequality, and Labor Share
w28742 Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
John Moore
Shengxing Zhang

Credit Horizons
w28737 Casey B. Mulligan
The Backward Art of Slowing the Spread? Congregation Efficiencies during COVID-19
w28731 Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis

Why Working from Home Will Stick
w28720 George A. Alessandria
Robert C. Johnson
Kei-Mu Yi

Perspectives on Trade and Structural Transformation
w28712 Georgii Riabov
Aleh Tsyvinski

Policy with Stochastic Hysteresis
w28704 Francisco J. Buera
Roberto N. Fattal-Jaef
Hugo Hopenhayn
P. Andres Neumeyer
Yongseok Shin

The Economic Ripple Effects of COVID-19
w28693 Susanto Basu
Giacomo Candian
Ryan Chahrour
Rosen Valchev

Risky Business Cycles
w28692 Valentin Haddad
Tyler Muir

Do Intermediaries Matter for Aggregate Asset Prices?
w28687 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Marco C. Sammon

What Triggers Stock Market Jumps?
w28685 Cecilia R. Caglio
R. Matthew Darst
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan

Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Loans to SMEs and Large Firms
w28681 Julieta Caunedo
Elisa Keller
Yongseok Shin

Technology and the Task Content of Jobs across the Development Spectrum
w28676 Eduardo Dávila
Itay Goldstein

Optimal Deposit Insurance
w28675 Arpit Gupta
Vrinda Mittal
Jonas Peeters
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Flattening the Curve: Pandemic-Induced Revaluation of Urban Real Estate
w28663 Victoria Gregory
Guido Menzio
David G. Wiczer

The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market
w28660 Haoran He
David Neumark
Qian Weng

"I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For": Evidence of Directed Search from a Field Experiment
w28657 Elias Albagli
Mario Canales
Chad Syverson
Matias Tapia
Juan Wlasiuk

Productivity Growth and Workers' Job Transitions: Evidence from Censal Microdata
w28656 Jeremy Greenwood
Nezih Guner
Ricardo Marto

The Great Transition: Kuznets Facts for Family-Economists
w28638 Guido Menzio
Optimal Product Design: Implications for Competition and Growth under Declining Search Frictions
w28636 Roberto Chang
Humberto Martínez
Andrés Velasco

Pandemics, Incentives, and Economic Policy: A Dynamic Model
w28635 Tiago V. Cavalcanti
Joseph P. Kaboski
Bruno S. Martins
Cezar Santos

Dispersion in Financing Costs and Development
w28632 Titan Alon
Sena Coskun
Matthias Doepke
David Koll
Michèle Tertilt

From Mancession to Shecession: Women's Employment in Regular and Pandemic Recessions
w28629 Alexander Chudik
M. Hashem Pesaran
Alessandro Rebucci

COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing
w28625 Olivier Coibion
Dimitris Georgarakos
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Geoff Kenny
Michael Weber

The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending
w28623 Paul Bouscasse
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870
w28617 Jonas E. Arias
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Juan Rubio Ramírez
Minchul Shin

Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs
w28613 Daniel L. Greenwald
Matteo Leombroni
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Financial and Total Wealth Inequality with Declining Interest Rates
w28604 Francesco Bianchi
Cosmin L. Ilut
Hikaru Saijo

Implications of Diagnostic Expectations: Theory and Applications
w28599 Peter M. DeMarzo
Zhiguo He
Fabrice Tourre

Sovereign Debt Ratchets and Welfare Destruction
w28595 Harrison Hong
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Welfare Consequences of Sustainable Finance
w28592 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Tho Pham
Oleksandr Talavera

The Voice of Monetary Policy
w28582 Yan Ji
Songyuan Teng
Robert Townsend

Branch Expansion versus Digital Banking: The Dynamics of Growth and Inequality in a Spatial Equilibrium Model
w28580 William N. Goetzmann
Christophe Spaenjers
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Real and Private-Value Assets
w28579 Joachim Hubmer
Pascual Restrepo

Not a Typical Firm: The Joint Dynamics of Firms, Labor Shares, and Capital-Labor Substitution
w28571 S. Borağan Aruoba
Marko Mlikota
Frank Schorfheide
Sergio Villalvazo

SVARs With Occasionally-Binding Constraints
w28473 Thomas J. Sargent
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Stochastic Earnings Growth and Equilibrium Wealth Distributions
w28561 Francisco J. Buera
Hugo Hopenhayn
Yongseok Shin
Nicholas Trachter

Big Push in Distorted Economies
w28559 Viral V. Acharya
Robert F. Engle III
Sascha Steffen

Why Did Bank Stocks Crash During COVID-19?
w28554 David de la Croix
Matthias Doepke

A Soul's View of the Optimal Population Problem
w28553 Cecile Gaubert
Oleg Itskhoki
Maximilian Vogler

Government Policies in a Granular Global Economy
w28551 Tianyu Fan
Michael Peters
Fabrizio Zilibotti

Service-Led or Service-Biased Growth? Equilibrium Development Accounting across Indian Districts
w28540 Saki Bigio
Yuliy Sannikov

A Model of Credit, Money, Interest, and Prices
w28538 Laurence M. Ball
N. Gregory Mankiw

Market Power in Neoclassical Growth Models
w28537 Jeremy Greenwood
Yueyuan Ma
Mehmet Yorukoglu

'You Will:' A Macroeconomic Analysis of Digital Advertising
w28536 Alina Carare
Carlos de Resende
Andrew T. Levin
Chelsea Zhang

Do Monetary Policy Frameworks Matter in Low Income Countries?
w28524 Daniela Scur
Raffaella Sadun
John Van Reenen
Renata Lemos
Nicholas Bloom

The World Management Survey at 18: lessons and the way forward
w28513 John H. Cochrane
Portfolios for Long-Term Investors
w28505 Stefania Albanesi
Jiyeon Kim

The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on the US Labor Market
w28504 Isaac Ehrlich
Yun Pei

Endogenous Immigration, Human and Physical Capital Formation, and the Immigration Surplus
w28495 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Federico Mandelman
Yang Yu
Francesco Zanetti

The "Matthew Effect" and Market Concentration: Search Complementarities and Monopsony Power
w28489 Gaetano Gaballo
Guillermo Ordoñez

The Two Faces of Information
w28486 Gaurav Chiplunkar
Pinelopi K. Goldberg

Aggregate Implications of Barriers to Female Entrepreneurship
w28485 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
w28481 Gregor Jarosch
Searching for Job Security and the Consequences of Job Loss
w28476 David Cuberes
Klaus Desmet
Jordan Rappaport

Urban Growth Shadows
w28470 Arindrajit Dube
Aggregate Employment Effects of Unemployment Benefits During Deep Downturns: Evidence from the Expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation
w28468 Job Boerma
Loukas Karabarbounis

Reparations and Persistent Racial Wealth Gaps
w28466 Jose Luis Cruz Alvarez
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

The Economic Geography of Global Warming
w28464 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi

The Analytic Theory of a Monetary Shock
w28461 Morris A. Davis
Andra C. Ghent
Jesse M. Gregory

The Work-from-Home Technology Boon and its Consequences
w28459 Harold L. Cole
Daniel Neuhann
Guillermo Ordoñez

Asymmetric Information and Sovereign Debt: Theory Meets Mexican Data
w28454 David J. Harding
Lisa Sanbonmatsu
Greg J. Duncan
Lisa A. Gennetian
Lawrence F. Katz
Ronald C. Kessler
Jeffrey R. Kling
Matthew Sciandra
Jens Ludwig

Evaluating Contradictory Experimental and Non-Experimental Estimates of Neighborhood Effects on Economic Outcomes for Adults
w28453 Anton Korinek
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Artificial Intelligence, Globalization, and Strategies for Economic Development
w28445 Ayşegül Şahin
Murat Tasci
Jin Yan

Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections
w28440 Benjamin Moll
Lukasz Rachel
Pascual Restrepo

Uneven Growth: Automation's Impact on Income and Wealth Inequality
w28435 Anusha Chari
Lakshita Jain
Nirupama Kulkarni

The Unholy Trinity: Regulatory Forbearance, Stressed Banks and Zombie Firms
w28434 Andrew Atkeson
A Parsimonious Behavioral SEIR Model of the 2020 COVID Epidemic in the United States and the United Kingdom
w28427 Maryam Farboodi
Laura Veldkamp

A Growth Model of the Data Economy
w28426 Alp Simsek
The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation
w28425 Gerald Carlino
Thorsten Drautzburg
Robert P. Inman
Nicholas Zarra

Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from U.S. States
w28423 Francisco J. Buera
Joseph P. Kaboski
Robert M. Townsend

From Micro to Macro Development
w28418 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Veronika Penciakova
Nick Sander

COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 "Time Bomb"?
w28417 Joonkyu Choi
Nathan Goldschlag
John C. Haltiwanger
J. Daniel Kim

Founding Teams and Startup Performance
w28416 Pedro Bordalo
Nicola Gennaioli
Andrei Shleifer
Stephen J. Terry

Real Credit Cycles
w28415 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Economic Fluctuations and Pseudo-Wealth
w28412 Sewon Hur
César Sosa-Padilla
Zeynep Yom

Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises
w28402 Ilse Lindenlaub
Fabien Postel-Vinay

The Worker-Job Surplus
w28401 Gaurav Khanna
Wenquan Liang
Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Ran Song

The Productivity Consequences of Pollution-Induced Migration in China
w28400 Joseph G. Altonji
Disa M. Hynsjo
Ivan Vidangos

Marriage Dynamics, Earnings Dynamics, and Lifetime Family Income
w28392 Angus Deaton
COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality
w28390 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Oleksandr Talavera
Nam Hoai Vu

Quality and Price Setting of High-Tech Goods
w28385 Cecile Gaubert
Patrick M. Kline
Damián Vergara
Danny Yagan

Trends in U.S. Spatial Inequality: Concentrating Affluence and a Democratization of Poverty
w28384 Andrea Lanteri
Adriano A. Rampini

Constrained-Efficient Capital Reallocation
w28367 Aifan Ling
Jianjun Miao
Neng Wang

Robust Financial Contracting and Investment
w28366 Tobias Broer
Per Krusell
Erik Öberg

Fiscal Multipliers: A Heterogenous-Agent Perspective
w28355 Efraim Benmelech
Janice C. Eberly
Joshua L. Krieger
Dimitris Papanikolaou

Private and Social Returns to R&D: Drug Development and Demographics
w28354 Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee
Minsung Park
Yongseok Shin

Hit Harder, Recover Slower? Unequal Employment Effects of the Covid-19 Shock
w28353 Thomas Crossley
Yifan Gong
Todd R. Stinebrickner
Ralph Stinebrickner

Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-college Periods: New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations.
w28346 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Keynesian Production Networks and the Covid-19 Crisis: A Simple Benchmark
w28345 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi
Kunal Sangani

The Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy
w28340 Charles I. Jones
Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail
w28320 Steven J. Davis
Dingqian Liu
Xuguang Simon Sheng

Stock Prices, Lockdowns, and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus
w28314 Nicholas Bloom
Robert S. Fletcher
Ethan Yeh

The Impact of COVID-19 on US Firms
2020
w28309 Alvaro Garcia Marin
Andrei V. Potlogea
Nico Voigtländer
Yang Yang

Cities, Productivity, and Trade
w28304 Francesco Bianchi
Giada Bianchi
Dongho Song

The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates
w28301 Marta A. Santamaría
Jaume Ventura
Uğur Yeşilbayraktar

Borders within Europe
w28300 Harald Uhlig
Taojun Xie

Parallel Digital Currencies and Sticky Prices
w28298 Patrick Bolton
Ye Li
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits
w28294 Mariacristina De Nardi
Giulio Fella
Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

Wage Risk and Government and Spousal Insurance
w28292 Juan C. Hatchondo
Leonardo Martinez
César Sosa-Padilla

Sovereign Debt Standstills
w28290 Nikolas Zolas
Zachary Kroff
Erik Brynjolfsson
Kristina McElheran
David N. Beede
Cathy Buffington
Nathan Goldschlag
Lucia Foster
Emin Dinlersoz

Advanced Technologies Adoption and Use by U.S. Firms: Evidence from the Annual Business Survey
w28289 Russell Cooper
Guan Gong
Guanliang Hu
Ping Yan

Exporting from China: The Determinants of Trade Status
w28285 Prasanna Tambe
Lorin Hitt
Daniel Rock
Erik Brynjolfsson

Digital Capital and Superstar Firms
w28284 Jess Benhabib
Xuewen Liu
Pengfei Wang

Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics: An Expected Utility Framework
w28282 Timo Boppart
Karl Harmenberg
John Hassler
Per Krusell
Jonna Olsson

Integrated Epi-Econ Assessment
w28270 Alberto Alesina
Sebastian Hohmann
Stelios Michalopoulos
Elias Papaioannou

Religion and Educational Mobility in Africa
w28261 Roger Farmer
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity & Wealth Inequality
w28259 Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Lucia Foster
Brian Lucking
Scott Ohlmacher
Itay Saporta-Eksten

Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty
w28258 Florin O. Bilbiie
Marc J. Melitz

Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier
w28257 Daron Acemoglu
David Autor
Jonathon Hazell
Pascual Restrepo

AI and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies
w28251 Réka Juhász
Mara P. Squicciarini
Nico Voigtländer

Away from Home and Back: Coordinating (Remote) Workers in 1800 and 2020
w28243 Eoin F. McGuirk
Nathan Nunn

Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa
w28237 Linda Schilling
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Harald Uhlig

Central Bank Digital Currency: When Price and Bank Stability Collide
w28234 Michael Bailey
Drew M. Johnston
Martin Koenen
Theresa Kuchler
Dominic Russel
Johannes Stroebel

Social Networks Shape Beliefs and Behavior: Evidence from Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic
w28233 Nicholas Bloom
Philip Bunn
Paul Mizen
Pawel Smietanka
Gregory Thwaites

The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity
w28226 Stefano Giglio
Bryan T. Kelly
Johannes Stroebel

Climate Finance
w28225 Oleg Itskhoki
The Story of the Real Exchange Rate
w28213 Xing Guo
Pablo Ottonello
Diego J. Perez

Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies
w28211 Thomas Philippon
Efficient Programs to Support Businesses During and After Lockdowns
w28204 Xavier Gabaix
Ralph S. J. Koijen

Granular Instrumental Variables
w28201 Patrick J. Kehoe
Pierlauro Lopez
Virgiliu Midrigan
Elena Pastorino

Credit Frictions in the Great Recession
w28200 David A. Green
Ali Karimirad
Gaëlle Simard-Duplain
Henry E. Siu

COVID and the Economic Importance of In-Person K-12 Schooling
w28182 Mario J. Crucini
Oscar O'Flaherty

Stay-at-Home Orders in a Fiscal Union
w28178 Ernest Liu
Aleh Tsyvinski

Dynamical Structure and Spectral Properties of Input-Output Networks
w28177 Angus Deaton
Paul Schreyer

GDP, Wellbeing, and Health: Thoughts on the 2017 Round of the International Comparison Program
w28174 Russell Cooper
Özgen Öztürk

TFPR: Dispersion and Cyclicality
w28170 Chong-En Bai
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng Michael Song
Xin Wang

Special Deals from Special Investors: The Rise of State-Connected Private Owners in China
w28169 Carla Varona Cervantes
Russell Cooper

Labor Market Implications of Education MisMatch
w28163 Bruno Conte
Klaus Desmet
Dávid Krisztián Nagy
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World
w28151 Olivia S. Kim
Jonathan A. Parker
Antoinette Schoar

Revenue Collapses and the Consumption of Small Business Owners in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic
w28145 Fernando E. Alvarez
David O. Argente

On the Effects of the Availability of Means of Payments: The Case of Uber
w28133 Fernando E. Alvarez
David O. Argente

Consumer Surplus of Alternative Payment Methods: Paying Uber with Cash
w28127 Viral V. Acharya
Timothy Johnson
Suresh Sundaresan
Steven Zheng

The Value of a Cure: An Asset Pricing Perspective
w28119 Sebastian Infante
Guillermo Ordoñez

The Collateral Link between Volatility and Risk Sharing
w28117 Florin O. Bilbiie
Tommaso Monacelli
Roberto Perotti

Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Helicopter View
w28115 Pol Antràs
De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age
w28111 Robert E. Hall
Marianna Kudlyak

The Inexorable Recoveries of US Unemployment
w28093 Eric Budish
Maximize Utility subject to R≤1: A Simple Price-Theory Approach to Covid-19 Lockdown and Reopening Policy
w28092 Kaiji Chen
Qing Wang
Tong Xu
Tao Zha

Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of LTV Policy: Evidence from China's Micro Data
w28090 Gary D. Hansen
Lee E. Ohanian
Fatih Ozturk

Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling of Long and Short-Run Historical Events
w28083 Eliza Forsythe
Lisa B. Kahn
Fabian Lange
David G. Wiczer

Searching, Recalls, and Tightness: An Interim Report on the COVID Labor Market
w28080 Xavier Cirera
Diego A. Comin
Marcio Cruz
Kyung Min Lee

Technology Within and Across Firms
w28070 J. Vernon Henderson
Adam Storeygard
David N. Weil

Quality-adjusted Population Density
w28066 Alisdair McKay
Johannes F. Wieland

Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand
w28060 Neele Balke
Thibaut Lamadon

Productivity Shocks, Long-Term Contracts and Earnings Dynamics
w28059 Treb Allen
Dave Donaldson

Persistence and Path Dependence in the Spatial Economy
w28056 Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Edward Kim
Dimitris Papanikolaou

Intangible Value
w28055 Joshua K. Hausman
Paul W. Rhode
Johannes F. Wieland

Farm Product Prices, Redistribution, and the Early U.S. Great Depression
w28052 Boyan Jovanovic
Julien Prat

Reputation and Earnings Dynamics
w28044 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Political Polarization and Expected Economic Outcomes
w28032 R. Glenn Hubbard
Michael R. Strain

Has the Paycheck Protection Program Succeeded?
w28031 Andrew Atkeson
Michael C. Droste
Michael Mina
James H. Stock

Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests
w28030 Boyan Jovanovic
Sai Ma
Peter L. Rousseau

Private Equity and Growth
w28028 Jonathan A. Parker
Antoinette Schoar
Yang Sun

Retail Financial Innovation and Stock Market Dynamics: The Case of Target Date Funds
w28026 Timothy Cogley
Boyan Jovanovic

Structural Breaks in an Endogenous Growth Model
w28024 Boyan Jovanovic
Sai Ma

Uncertainty and Growth Disasters
w28023 Rishabh Kirpalani
Thomas Philippon

Data Sharing and Market Power with Two-Sided Platforms
w28016 Nathan Foley-Fisher
Gary B. Gorton
Stéphane Verani

Adverse Selection Dynamics in Privately-Produced Safe Debt Markets
w28015 Anthony M. Diercks
Jonathan Rawls
Eric Sims

Bury the Gold Standard? A Quantitative Exploration
w28014 Christiane Baumeister
Pierre Guérin

A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth
w28013 Carlos Garriga
Aaron Hedlund
Yang Tang
Ping Wang

Rural-Urban Migration and House Prices in China
w28008 Diego A. Comin
Javier Quintana Gonzalez
Tom G. Schmitz
Antonella Trigari

Measuring TFP: The Role of Profits, Adjustment Costs, and Capacity Utilization
w28006 Jonathan Heathcote
Kjetil Storesletten
Giovanni L. Violante

How Should Tax Progressivity Respond to Rising Income Inequality?
w28005 Jonathon Hazell
Juan Herreño
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States
w28004 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Charles I. Jones

Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report
w28002 Robert J. Barro
r Minus g
w28001 Hang Bai
Lu Zhang

Searching for the Equity Premium
w27992 Joseph E. Stiglitz
The Pandemic Economic Crisis, Precautionary Behavior, and Mobility Constraints: An Application of the Dynamic Disequilibrium Model with Randomness
w27991 S. Borağan Aruoba
Pablo Cuba-Borda
Kenji Higa-Flores
Frank Schorfheide
Sergio Villalvazo

Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints
w27985 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

Some Facts about Dominant Firms
w27973 Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel

Social Finance
w27964 Ross Levine
Chen Lin
Mingzhu Tai
Wensi Xie

How Did Depositors Respond to COVID-19?
w27961 Scott R. Baker
Aniket Baksy
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Jonathan A. Rodden

Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty
w27958 Ariel Burstein
Vasco M. Carvalho
Basile Grassi

Bottom-up Markup Fluctuations
w27957 Diego A. Comin
Robert C. Johnson

Offshoring and Inflation
w27956 Orazio Attanasio
Kieran P. Larkin
Morten O. Ravn
Mario Padula

(S)Cars and the Great Recession
w27951 Matteo Cacciatore
Federico Ravenna

Uncertainty, Wages, and the Business Cycle
w27945 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Olivier Darmouni
Stephan Luck
Matthew C. Plosser

Bank Liquidity Provision Across the Firm Size Distribution
w27944 Orazio Attanasio
Agnes Kovacs
Patrick Moran

Temptation and Commitment: Understanding Hand-to-Mouth Behavior
w27937 Steve Cicala
Powering Work from Home
w27935 Juliane Begenau
Saki Bigio
Jeremy Majerovitz
Matias Vieyra

A Q-Theory of Banks
w27926 Mary Amiti
Oleg Itskhoki
Jozef Konings

Dominant Currencies: How Firms Choose Currency Invoicing and Why it Matters
w27925 Michael Dinerstein
Rigissa Megalokonomou
Constantine Yannelis

Human Capital Depreciation
w27924 Jessica Gallant
Kory Kroft
Fabian Lange
Matthew J. Notowidigdo

Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession
w27922 Emmanuel Saez
Gabriel Zucman

The Rise of Income and Wealth Inequality in America: Evidence from Distributional Macroeconomic Accounts
w27921 Emmanuel Saez
Gabriel Zucman

Trends in US Income and Wealth Inequality: Revising After the Revisionists
w27917 Rafael Guntin
Pablo Ottonello
Diego Perez

The Micro Anatomy of Macro Consumption Adjustments
w27915 Vanessa I. Alviarez
Javier Cravino
Natalia Ramondo

Firm-Embedded Productivity and Cross-Country Income Differences
w27908 Sangmin Aum
Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee
Yongseok Shin

Who Should Work from Home during a Pandemic? The Wage-Infection Trade-off
w27896 Kyle Handley
J. Frank Li

Measuring the Effects of Firm Uncertainty on Economic Activity: New Evidence from One Million Documents
w27886 Robert E. Hall
Marianna Kudlyak

Unemployed With Jobs and Without Jobs
w27881 Patrick Baylis
Pierre-Loup Beauregard
Marie Connolly
Nicole Fortin
David A. Green
Pablo Gutierrez Cubillos
Sam Gyetvay
Catherine Haeck
Timea Laura Molnar
Gaëlle Simard-Duplain
Henry E. Siu
Maria teNyenhuis
Casey Warman

The Distribution of COVID-19 Related Risks
w27877 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Veronika Penciakova
Nick Sander

COVID-19 and SME Failures
w27876 Christopher D. Carroll
Edmund Crawley
Jiri Slacalek
Matthew N. White

Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act
w27872 Sebastián Fanelli
Ludwig Straub

A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions
w27869 Charles Yuji Horioka
Is the Selfish Life-Cycle Model More Applicable in Japan and, If So, Why? A Literature Survey
w27867 Steven J. Davis
Stephen Hansen
Cristhian Seminario-Amez

Firm-Level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19
w27864 Ian Dew-Becker
Stefano Giglio

Cross-Sectional Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Evidence from 40 Years of Options Data
w27863 Benjamin F. Jones
Lawrence H. Summers

A Calculation of the Social Returns to Innovation
w27862 Ufuk Akcigit
Jeremy G. Pearce
Marta Prato

Tapping into Talent: Coupling Education and Innovation Policies for Economic Growth
w27855 Alexander Chudik
Kamiar Mohaddes
M. Hashem Pesaran
Mehdi Raissi
Alessandro Rebucci

A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model
w27851 Tania Babina
Asaf Bernstein
Filippo Mezzanotti

Crisis Innovation
w27849 Brian Fabo
Martina Jančoková
Elisabeth Kempf
Ľuboš Pástor

Fifty Shades of QE: Comparing Findings of Central Bankers and Academics
w27847 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Tony Zhang

The Economics of Currency Risk
w27840 Pol Antràs
Stephen J. Redding
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Globalization and Pandemics
w27837 Treb Allen
Costas Arkolakis
Xiangliang Li

On the Equilibrium Properties of Network Models with Heterogeneous Agents
w27836 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Edward S. Knotek II
Raphael Schoenle

Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations
w27833 Georgij Alekseev
Safaa Amer
Manasa Gopal
Theresa Kuchler
JW Schneider
Johannes Stroebel
Nils C. Wernerfelt

The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: Evidence from Owners, Managers, and Employees
w27828 Ufuk Akcigit
Sina T. Ates
Josh Lerner
Richard R. Townsend
Yulia Zhestkova

Fencing Off Silicon Valley: Cross-Border Venture Capital and Technology Spillovers
w27826 Eduardo Dávila
Optimal Financial Transaction Taxes
w27820 Cosmin L. Ilut
Rosen Valchev

Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers
w27810 Lin William Cong
Ye Li
Neng Wang

Token-Based Platform Finance
w27809 Simon Gilchrist
Bin Wei
Vivian Z. Yue
Egon Zakrajšek

The Fed Takes on Corporate Credit Risk: An Analysis of the Efficacy of the SMCCF
w27806 David O. Argente
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Munseob Lee

Measuring the Cost of Living in Mexico and the US
w27800 Bernardo Candia
Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents
w27794 Greg Kaplan
Benjamin Moll
Giovanni L. Violante

The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S.
w27786 Zhengyang Jiang
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt
w27784 Josue Cox
Daniel L. Greenwald
Sydney C. Ludvigson

What Explains the COVID-19 Stock Market?
w27774 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Mark Koyama
Youhong Lin
Tuan-Hwee Sng

The Fractured-Land Hypothesis
w27773 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Dirk Krueger
Alexander Ludwig
Irina Popova

The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures
w27771 Michele Lenza
Giorgio E. Primiceri

How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020
w27768 Michael Woodford
Effective Demand Failures and the Limits of Monetary Stabilization Policy
w27767 Pei-Ju Liao
Ping Wang
Yin-Chi Wang
Chong Kee Yip

To Stay or to Migrate? When Becker Meets Harris-Todaro
w27764 Holger Sieg
Chamna Yoon
Jipeng Zhang

The Impact of Migration Controls on Urban Fiscal Policies and the Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital in China
w27763 Kaiji Chen
Haoyu Gao
Patrick C. Higgins
Daniel F. Waggoner
Tao Zha

Monetary Stimulus Amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data
w27758 Paolo Martellini
Guido Menzio

Jacks of All Trades and Masters of One: Declining Search Frictions and Unequal Growth
w27757 David E. Bloom
Michael Kuhn
Klaus Prettner

Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses
w27748 Andrew T. Levin
Arunima Sinha

Limitations on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Forward Guidance in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27747 Jesse Perla
Carolin Pflueger
Michal Szkup

Doubling Down on Debt: Limited Liability as a Financial Friction
w27744 Alexandr Kopytov
Nikolai Roussanov
Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

Cheap Thrills: the Price of Leisure and the Global Decline in Work Hours
w27742 Andrew B. Abel
Stavros Panageas

Social Distancing, Vaccination and the Paradoxical Optimality of an Endemic Equilibrium
w27741 Marina Azzimonti
Alessandra Fogli
Fabrizio Perri
Mark Ponder

Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks
w27739 Julien Acalin
Alessandro Rebucci

Global Business and Financial Cycles: A Tale of Two Capital Account Regimes
w27733 Qian Chen
Christoffer Koch
Padma Sharma
Gary Richardson

Payments Crises and Consequences
w27732 Saki Bigio
Liyan Shi

Repurchase Options in the Market for Lemons
w27731 Francisco J. Buera
Joseph P. Kaboski
Martí Mestieri
Daniel G. O'Connor

The Stable Transformation Path
w27729 Jeehoon Han
Bruce D. Meyer
James X. Sullivan

Income and Poverty in the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27727 Corina Boar
Simon Mongey

Dynamic Trade-offs and Labor Supply Under the CARES Act
w27723 Martin Beraja
David Y. Yang
Noam Yuchtman

Data-intensive Innovation and the State: Evidence from AI Firms in China
w27721 Haelim Anderson
Selman Erol
Guillermo Ordoñez

Interbank Networks in the Shadows of the Federal Reserve Act
w27719 Andrew Atkeson
Karen Kopecky
Tao Zha

Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19
w27715 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana

Estimating DSGE Models: Recent Advances and Future Challenges
w27712 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect
w27709 Tullio Jappelli
Luigi Pistaferri

Permanent Income Shocks, Target Wealth, and the Wealth Gap
w27708 Anusha Chari
Peter Blair Henry
Hector Reyes

The Baker Hypothesis
w27706 Nathan Nunn
History as Evolution
w27702 George-Marios Angeletos
Chen Lian

Confidence and the Propagation of Demand Shocks
w27697 Kenneth S. Rogoff
Yuanchen Yang

Peak China Housing
w27693 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?
w27675 Anusha Chari
Jennifer S. Rhee

The Return to Capital in Capital-Scarce Countries
w27671 Satyajit Chatterjee
Dean Corbae
Kyle P. Dempsey
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

A Quantitative Theory of the Credit Score
w27663 Sebastian Heise
Fatih Karahan
Ayşegül Şahin

The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage-Price Pass-Through
w27660 Titan Alon
Matthias Doepke
Jane Olmstead-Rumsey
Michèle Tertilt

This Time It's Different: The Role of Women's Employment in a Pandemic Recession
w27657 Martín Uribe
Staggered Price Indexation
w27646 Marco Di Maggio
Amir Kermani
Rodney Ramcharan
Vincent Yao
Edison Yu

The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
w27642 Amir Kermani
Yueran Ma

Asset Specificity of Non-Financial Firms
w27639 Alok Johri
Shahed Khan
César Sosa-Padilla

Interest Rate Uncertainty and Sovereign Default Risk
w27637 Annette Alstadsæter
Julie Brun Bjørkheim
Wojciech Kopczuk
Andreas Økland

Norwegian and US Policies Alleviate Business Vulnerability Due to the Covid-19 Shock Equally Well
w27576 Miguel Garza Casado
Britta Glennon
Julia Lane
David McQuown
Daniel Rich
Bruce A. Weinberg

The Aggregate Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the COVID-19 Unemployment Supplement
w27625 Valerie A. Ramey
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment
w27622 Corina Boar
Virgiliu Midrigan

Efficient Redistribution
w27617 Natalie Bachas
Peter Ganong
Pascal J. Noel
Joseph S. Vavra
Arlene Wong
Diana Farrell
Fiona E. Greig

Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data
w27613 Alexander W. Bartik
Marianne Bertrand
Feng Lin
Jesse Rothstein
Matt Unrath

Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis
w27610 Michael J. Fishman
Jonathan A. Parker
Ludwig Straub

A Dynamic Theory of Lending Standards
w27596 Jianwei Xing
Eric Zou
Zhentao Yin
Yong Wang
Zhenhua Li

"Quick Response" Economic Stimulus: The Effect of Small-Value Digital Coupons on Spending
w27595 Marina Azzimonti
Gabriel P. Mihalache
Laura Karpuska

Bargaining over Taxes and Entitlements
w27580 Federico Huneeus
Richard Rogerson

Heterogeneous Paths of Industrialization
w27566 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
John Coglianese

Projecting Unemployment Durations: A Factor-Flows Simulation Approach With Application to the COVID-19 Recession
w27565 Daron Acemoglu
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

Firms, Failures, and Fluctuations: The Macroeconomics of Supply Chain Disruptions
w27558 Wolfgang Keller
Carol H. Shiue

China's Foreign Trade and Investment, 1800-1950
w27552 Peter Ganong
Damon Jones
Pascal J. Noel
Fiona E. Greig
Diana Farrell
Chris Wheat

Wealth, Race, and Consumption Smoothing of Typical Income Shocks
w27540 Xiaoshan Chen
Eric M. Leeper
Campbell B. Leith

Strategic Interactions in U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policies
w27536 Olivier Wang
Iván Werning

Dynamic Oligopoly and Price Stickiness
w27528 Karl M. Aspelund
Michael C. Droste
James H. Stock
Christopher D. Walker

Identification and Estimation of Undetected COVID-19 Cases Using Testing Data from Iceland
w27525 Shigeru Fujita
Giuseppe Moscarini
Fabien Postel-Vinay

Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation
w27521 Michael Woodford
Yinxi Xie

Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight
w27516 Jesse Rothstein
The Lost Generation? Labor Market Outcomes for Post Great Recession Entrants
w27503 Réka Juhász
Mara P. Squicciarini
Nico Voigtländer

Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Industrialization in France
w27488 Gilbert E. Metcalf
James H. Stock

The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe's Carbon Taxes
w27486 Adrien Auclert
Bence Bardóczy
Matthew Rognlie

MPCs, MPEs and Multipliers: A Trilemma for New Keynesian Models
w27483 Daron Acemoglu
Ali Makhdoumi
Azarakhsh Malekian
Asuman Ozdaglar

Testing, Voluntary Social Distancing and the Spread of an Infection
w27482 Francis X. Diebold
Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession
w27481 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Andrea Prestipino

Credit Booms, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy
w27472 Maryam Farboodi
Péter Kondor

Rational Sentiments and Economic Cycles
w27465 Andrew Atkeson
Magnus Irie

Understanding 100 Years of the Evolution of Top Wealth Shares in the U.S.: What is the Role of Family Firms?
w27464 Jennifer La'O
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

Optimal Monetary Policy in Production Networks
w27461 Efraim Benmelech
Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis
w27455 Diego A. Comin
Ana Danieli
Martí Mestieri

Income-driven Labor Market Polarization
w27453 Martin M. Guzman
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Towards a Dynamic Disequilibrium Theory with Randomness
w27447 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Reviving the Salter-Swan Small Open Economy Model
w27446 Jennifer Bennett
Robert Kornfeld
Daniel Sichel
David Wasshausen

Measuring Infrastructure in BEA's National Economic Accounts
w27442 Martin Goetz
Luc Laeven
Ross Levine

Do Bank Insiders Impede Equity Issuances?
w27439 Julian Kozlowski
Laura Veldkamp
Venky Venkateswaran

Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19
w27434 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi
Aleksei Oskolkov

The Macroeconomics of Sticky Prices with Generalized Hazard Functions
w27432 Austan Goolsbee
Chad Syverson

Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020
w27431 Raj Chetty
John N. Friedman
Nathaniel Hendren
Michael Stepner
The Opportunity Insights Team

The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data
w27430 Martin S. Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo
Mathias Trabandt

Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New Keynesian Models
w27428 Paolo Martellini
Guido Menzio
Ludo Visschers

Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment
w27425 Robert J. Gordon
Hassan Sayed

Transatlantic Technologies: The Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. and European Productivity Growth
w27420 Mario J. Crucini
Mototsugu Shintani
Takayuki Tsuruga

A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
w27418 David Altig
Scott R. Baker
Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Philip Bunn
Scarlet Chen
Steven J. Davis
Julia Leather
Brent H. Meyer
Emil Mihaylov
Paul Mizen
Nicholas B. Parker
Thomas Renault
Pawel Smietanka
Greg Thwaites

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27411 Viral V. Acharya
Soumya Bhadury
Jay Surti

Financial Vulnerability and Risks to Growth in Emerging Markets
w27406 Francesco Bianchi
Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma

Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
w27404 Michael König
Zheng Michael Song
Kjetil Storesletten
Fabrizio Zilibotti

From Imitation to Innovation: Where Is all that Chinese R&D Going?
w27399 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

Managing Households' Expectations with Unconventional Policies
w27398 Aniruddh Mohan
Nicholas Z. Muller
Akshay Thyagarajan
Randall V. Martin
Melanie S. Hammer
Aaron van Donkelaar

The Growth of Nations Revisited: Global Environmental Accounting from 1998 to 2018.
w27395 C. Justin Cook
Manisha Shah

Aggregate Effects from Public Works: Evidence from India
w27394 Hie Joo Ahn
James D. Hamilton

Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment
w27390 Rongsheng Tang
Yang Tang
Ping Wang

Within-Job Wage Inequality: Performance Pay and Job Relatedness
w27386 Roberto M. Billi
Jordi Galí

Gains from wage Flexibility and the Zero Lower Bound
w27385 Jordi Galí
Insider-Outsider Labor Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy
w27384 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Does Policy Communication During Covid Work?
w27373 Glenn Ellison
Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of COVID-19
w27367 Jules H. van Binsbergen
Duration-Based Stock Valuation: Reassessing Stock Market Performance and Volatility
w27366 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Inequality, Fiscal Policy and COVID19 Restrictions in a Demand-Determined Economy
w27363 Qiping Xu
Eric Zwick

Tax Policy and Abnormal Investment Behavior
w27355 Mahyar Kargar
Benjamin Lester
David Lindsay
Shuo Liu
Pierre-Olivier Weill
Diego Zúñiga

Corporate Bond Liquidity During the COVID-19 Crisis
w27354 Pierre-Olivier Weill
The search theory of OTC markets
w27351 Diego Daruich
Raquel Fernández

Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment
w27347 Javier Andrés
Óscar Arce
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Samuel Hurtado

Deciphering the Macroeconomic Effects of Internal Devaluations in a Monetary Union
w27345 Jonathan Heathcote
Fabrizio Perri
Giovanni L. Violante

The Rise of US Earnings Inequality: Does the Cycle Drive the Trend?
w27342 Ralph S. J. Koijen
Motohiro Yogo

Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System
w27340 Robert E. Hall
Charles I. Jones
Peter J. Klenow

Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths
w27339 Jonathan S. Hartley
Alessandro Rebucci
Daniel Jiménez

An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies
w27335 Andrew Atkeson
Karen Kopecky
Tao Zha

Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for COVID-19 with an SIR Model
w27332 Takeo Hoshi
Anil K Kashyap

The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan
w27331 Matthias Doepke
Ruben Gaetani

Why Didn't the College Premium Rise Everywhere? Employment Protection and On-the-Job Investment in Skills
w27330 Dimitris Papanikolaou
Lawrence D.W. Schmidt

Working Remotely and the Supply-side Impact of Covid-19
w27323 Javier Bianchi
César Sosa-Padilla

Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk
w27317 Philippe Andrade
Olivier Coibion
Erwan Gautier
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Aggregate Expectations
w27313 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets
w27308 George-Marios Angeletos
Zhen Huo
Karthik A. Sastry

Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory
w27303 Ezra Oberfield
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Pierre-Daniel Sarte
Nicholas Trachter

Plants in Space
w27300 Giulia Brancaccio
Myrto Kalouptsidi
Theodore Papageorgiou
Nicola Rosaia

Search Frictions and Efficiency in Decentralized Transportation Markets
w27299 Theresa Kuchler
Yan Li
Lin Peng
Johannes Stroebel
Dexin Zhou

Social Proximity to Capital: Implications for Investors and Firms
w27295 Eric R. Sims
Jing Cynthia Wu

Wall Street vs. Main Street QE
w27281 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis
w27278 Yunfang Hu
Takuma Kunieda
Kazuo Nishimura
Ping Wang

Flying or Trapped?
w27275 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel P. Mihalache

Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets
w27273 Titan Alon
Minki Kim
David Lagakos
Mitchell VanVuren

How Should Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic Differ in the Developing World?
w27272 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel
Stephen Utkus

Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash
w27266 Yan Liu
Jing Cynthia Wu

Reconstructing the Yield Curve
w27264 Sangmin Aum
Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee
Yongseok Shin

COVID-19 Doesn't Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs: The Effect of Local Outbreaks in Korea
w27258 Yifei Wang
Toni M. Whited
Yufeng Wu
Kairong Xiao

Bank Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Structural Estimation
w27253 Ross Levine
Chen Lin
Lai Wei
Wensi Xie

Competition Laws and Corporate Innovation
w27248 Laura Liu
Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide

Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections
w27244 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi
Michael J. Mina
James H. Stock

Reopening Scenarios
w27234 Robert E. Hall
Marianna Kudlyak

Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?
w27232 Varadarajan V. Chari
Rishabh Kirpalani
Christopher Phelan

The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies during Pandemics
w27230 Yongheng Deng
Yang Tang
Ping Wang
Jing Wu

Spatial Misallocation in Chinese Housing and Land Markets
w27228 Luis Felipe Céspedes
Roberto Chang
Andrés Velasco

The Macroeconomics of a Pandemic: A Minimalist Model
w27224 Barthélémy Bonadio
Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic
w27221 Viral V. Acharya
Raghuram Rajan
Jack Shim

When is Debt Odious? A Theory of Repression and Growth Traps
w27220 David O. Argente
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Munseob Lee

The Cost of Privacy: Welfare Effects of the Disclosure of COVID-19 Cases
w27216 Peter Ganong
Pascal J. Noel
Joseph S. Vavra

US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic
w27214 Kaiji Chen
Patrick C. Higgins
Tao Zha

Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
w27207 Vadim Elenev
Tim Landvoigt
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?
w27193 Anna Stansbury
Lawrence H. Summers

The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An explanation for the recent evolution of the American economy
w27192 Apoorv Gupta
Jacopo Ponticelli
Andrea Tesei

Information, Technology Adoption and Productivity: The Role of Mobile Phones in Agriculture
w27184 Marcela Eslava
John C. Haltiwanger

The Size and Life-cycle Growth of Plants: The Role of Productivity, Demand and Wedges
w27182 Evan M. Munro
Serena Ng

Latent Dirichlet Analysis of Categorical Survey Expectations
w27179 Guillermo Ordoñez
Facundo Piguillem

Savings and Saving Rates: Up or Down?
w27168 Valentin Haddad
Alan Moreira
Tyler Muir

When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed's Response
w27167 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Stephen J. Terry

Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty
w27159 Tomaz Cajner
Leland D. Crane
Ryan A. Decker
John Grigsby
Adrian Hamins-Puertolas
Erik Hurst
Christopher Kurz
Ahu Yildirmaz

The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession
w27158 Viral V. Acharya
Matteo Crosignani
Tim Eisert
Christian Eufinger

Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe
w27152 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis
w27149 Daron Acemoglu
Asuman Ozdaglar
James Siderius
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

Systemic Credit Freezes in Financial Lending Networks
w27141 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending
w27140 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Entry vs. Rents
w27139 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

The Darwinian Returns to Scale
w27137 Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis

COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock
w27134 Laura Alfaro
Ester Faia
Nora Lamersdorf
Farzad Saidi

Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity
w27131 Annette Alstadsæter
Bernt Bratsberg
Gaute Eielsen
Wojciech Kopczuk
Simen Markussen
Oddbjorn Raaum
Knut Røed

The First Weeks of the Coronavirus Crisis: Who Got Hit, When and Why? Evidence from Norway
w27128 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Charles I. Jones

Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities
w27122 Nir Jaimovich
Itay Saporta-Eksten
Henry E. Siu
Yaniv Yedid-Levi

The Macroeconomics of Automation: Data, Theory, and Policy Analysis
w27121 Robert S. Pindyck
COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion
w27118 Saki Bigio
Mengbo Zhang
Eduardo Zilberman

Transfers vs Credit Policy: Macroeconomic Policy Trade-offs during Covid-19
w27116 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Sebastian A. Merkel
Yuliy Sannikov

The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble
w27115 George J. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections
w27113 Kyriakos T. Chousakos
Gary B. Gorton
Guillermo Ordoñez

The Macroprudential Role of Stock Markets
w27112 Francesco Bianchi
Renato Faccini
Leonardo Melosi

Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength
w27109 Ufuk Akcigit
Stefanie Stantcheva

Taxation and Innovation: What Do We Know?
w27105 Victoria Gregory
Guido Menzio
David G. Wiczer

Pandemic Recession: L or V-Shaped?
w27104 Martin S. Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo
Mathias Trabandt

The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining
w27102 Daron Acemoglu
Victor Chernozhukov
Iván Werning
Michael D. Whinston

Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model
w27100 Sangmin Aum
Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee
Yongseok Shin

Inequality of Fear and Self-Quarantine: Is There a Trade-off between GDP and Public Health?
w27097 Scott R. Baker
R. A. Farrokhnia
Steffen Meyer
Michaela Pagel
Constantine Yannelis

Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments
w27088 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Wenhao Li

Dissecting Mechanisms of Financial Crises: Intermediation and Sentiment
w27085 Simon Mongey
Laura Pilossoph
Alex Weinberg

Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing?
w27081 Stephie Fried
David Lagakos

Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach
w27075 Konrad B. Burchardi
Thomas Chaney
Tarek Alexander Hassan
Lisa Tarquinio
Stephen J. Terry

Immigration, Innovation, and Growth
w27064 Christoph E. Boehm
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities
w27063 Adriano A. Rampini
Sequential Lifting of COVID-19 Interventions with Population Heterogeneity
w27062 Christian A. Moser
Pierre Yared

Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment
w27060 Casey B. Mulligan
Economic Activity and the Value of Medical Innovation during a Pandemic
w27059 Maryam Farboodi
Gregor Jarosch
Robert Shimer

Internal and External Effects of Social Distancing in a Pandemic
w27052 Daron Acemoglu
Andrea Manera
Pascual Restrepo

Does the US Tax Code Favor Automation?
w27049 Robert J. Barro
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities during the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919
w27047 Dirk Krueger
Harald Uhlig
Taojun Xie

Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic: Evaluating the "Swedish Solution"
w27046 Andrew Glover
Jonathan Heathcote
Dirk Krueger
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic
w27044 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs: Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a "Covid-19" Shock
w27039 Alexander Chudik
M. Hashem Pesaran
Alessandro Rebucci

Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries
w27034 Lydia Cox
Gernot Müller
Ernesto Pastén
Raphael Schoenle
Michael Weber

Big G
w27031 Gene M. Grossman
Elhanan Helpman
Ezra Oberfield
Thomas Sampson

Endogenous Education and Long-Run Factor Shares
w27024 Stefan Steinerberger
Aleh Tsyvinski

On Vickrey's Income Averaging
w27020 Roberto Chang
Andrés Velasco

Economic Policy Incentives to Preserve Lives and Livelihoods
w27019 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Ken Teoh
Martín Uribe

Covid-19: Testing Inequality in New York City
w27017 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View
w27015 Peter J. Klenow
Huiyu Li

Innovative Growth Accounting
w27014 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Advances in Structural Vector Autoregressions with Imperfect Identifying Information
w27013 Michael D. Bauer
Eric T. Swanson

The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the "Fed Information Effect"
w27010 Mark Garmaise
Yaron Levi
Hanno Lustig

Spending Less After (Seemingly) Bad News
w27009 Zachary A. Bethune
Anton Korinek

Covid-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods
w27004 Marco Bassetto
Thomas J. Sargent

Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy
w27003 Marco Del Negro
Michele Lenza
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

What's up with the Phillips Curve?
w27002 Steve Bond
Arshia Hashemi
Greg Kaplan
Piotr Zoch

Some Unpleasant Markup Arithmetic: Production Function Elasticities and their Estimation from Production Data
w27001 Christiane Baumeister
Dimitris Korobilis
Thomas K. Lee

Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions
w26996 Dennis Fixler
Marina Gindelsky
David Johnson

Distributing Personal Income: Trends Over Time
w26990 Theresa Kuchler
Dominic Russel
Johannes Stroebel

The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with the Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook
w26987 Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma
Serena Ng

COVID-19 and The Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters
w26985 Luigi Bocola
Guido Lorenzoni

Risk Sharing Externalities
w26984 Callum J. Jones
Thomas Philippon
Venky Venkateswaran

Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home
w26983 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Stephen J. Terry

COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty
w26981 Fernando E. Alvarez
David Argente
Francesco Lippi

A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown
w26974 Stavros Panageas
The Implications of Heterogeneity and Inequality for Asset Pricing
w26973 Christopher Busch
Dirk Krueger
Alexander Ludwig
Irina Popova
Zainab Iftikhar

Should Germany Have Built a New Wall? Macroeconomic Lessons from the 2015-18 Refugee Wave
w26972 Fabian Lange
Theodore Papageorgiou

Beyond Cobb-Douglas: Flexibly Estimating Matching Functions with Unobserved Matching Efficiency
w26971 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Markus Schwedeler
Ahmed Tahoun

Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: COVID-19, SARS, and H1N1
w26965 Andrew Atkeson
How Deadly Is COVID-19? Understanding The Difficulties With Estimation Of Its Fatality Rate
w26964 Leonid Kogan
Dimitris Papanikolaou
Lawrence D. W. Schmidt
Jae Song

Technological Innovation and Labor Income Risk
w26962 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
w26960 Michael Bailey
Abhinav Gupta
Sebastian Hillenbrand
Theresa Kuchler
Robert J. Richmond
Johannes Stroebel

International Trade and Social Connectedness
w26954 Daniel Lewis
Karel Mertens
James H. Stock

U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
w26949 Scott R. Baker
R.A. Farrokhnia
Steffen Meyer
Michaela Pagel
Constantine Yannelis

How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic
w26948 Jonathan I. Dingel
Brent Neiman

How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?
w26947 Titan Alon
Matthias Doepke
Jane Olmstead-Rumsey
Michèle Tertilt

The Impact of COVID-19 on Gender Equality
w26945 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Kyle J. Kost
Marco C. Sammon
Tasaneeya Viratyosin

The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19
w26943 Joseph Kopecky
Alan M. Taylor

The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium
w26941 Atif R. Mian
Ludwig Straub
Amir Sufi

The Saving Glut of the Rich
w26940 Atif R. Mian
Ludwig Straub
Amir Sufi

Indebted Demand
w26939 James S. Cloyne
Òscar Jordà
Alan M. Taylor

Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier
w26935 Gianluca Benigno
Andrew Foerster
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
w26934 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
w26922 Giovanni Dosi
Mauro Napoletano
Andrea Roventini
Joseph E. Stiglitz
Tania Treibich

Rational Heuristics? Expectations and Behaviors in Evolving Economies with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents
w26921 Philippe Aghion
Roland Bénabou
Ralf Martin
Alexandra Roulet

Environmental Preferences and Technological Choices: Is Market Competition Clean or Dirty?
w26918 Veronica Guerrieri
Guido Lorenzoni
Ludwig Straub
Iván Werning

Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?
w26908 Matthew Baron
Emil Verner
Wei Xiong

Banking Crises without Panics
w26907 Zhenyu Gao
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

Learning about the Neighborhood
w26902 James H. Stock
Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus
w26901 David W. Berger
Kyle F. Herkenhoff
Simon Mongey

An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine
w26898 Andrew B. Abel
Stavros Panageas

An Analytic Framework For Interpreting Investment Regressions In The Presence Of Financial Constraints
w26894 Anna Cieslak
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

The Economics of the Fed Put
w26891 Andres Drenik
Simon Jäger
Miguel Pascuel Plotkin
Benjamin Schoefer

Paying Outsourced Labor: Direct Evidence from Linked Temp Agency-Worker-Client Data
w26890 David Atkin
Benjamin Faber
Thibault Fally
Marco Gonzalez-Navarro

Measuring Welfare and Inequality with Incomplete Price Information
w26882 Martin S. Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo
Mathias Trabandt

The Macroeconomics of Epidemics
w26881 Adam Guren
Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

What Do We Learn From Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?
w26878 Per Krusell
Toshihiko Mukoyama
Richard Rogerson
Ayşegül Şahin

Gross Worker Flows and Fluctuations in the Aggregate Labor Market
w26872 Michael McCracken
Serena Ng

FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research
w26868 David Lagakos
Samuel Marshall
Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Corey Vernot
Michael E. Waugh

Migration Costs and Observational Returns to Migration in the Developing World
w26867 Andrew Atkeson
What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios
w26866 Robert J. Barro
José F. Ursúa
Joanna Weng

The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity
w26857 Robert J. Shiller
Popular Economic Narratives Advancing the Longest U.S. Economic Expansion 2009-2019
w26856 Charles W. Calomiris
Harry Mamaysky
Ruoke Yang

Measuring the Cost of Regulation: A Text-Based Approach
w26855 Antonio Coppola
Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens
w26852 R. Jason Faberman
Andreas I. Mueller
Ayşegül Şahin
Giorgio Topa

The Shadow Margins of Labor Market Slack
w26838 Dean Corbae
Pablo D'Erasmo

Rising Bank Concentration
w26837 Francesco D’Acunto
Ulrike Malmendier
Michael Weber

Gender Roles and the Gender Expectations Gap
w26830 Yueran Ma
Tiziano Ropele
David Sraer
David Thesmar

A Quantitative Analysis of Distortions in Managerial Forecasts
w26829 Christoph Boehm
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Convex Supply Curves
w26828 Daniel Chen
Darrell Duffie

Market Fragmentation
w26826 Michael D. Cai
Marco Del Negro
Edward P. Herbst
Ethan Matlin
Reca Sarfati
Frank Schorfheide

Online Estimation of DSGE Models
w26820 Peter Bednarek
Daniel Marcel te Kaat
Chang Ma
Alessandro Rebucci

Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms
w26817 Francesco D’Acunto
Thomas Rauter
Christoph K. Scheuch
Michael Weber

Perceived Precautionary Savings Motives: Evidence from FinTech
w26810 Isaac Ehrlich
Yun Pei

Human Capital as Engine of Growth - The Role of Knowledge Transfers in Promoting Balanced Growth Within and Across Countries
w26803 Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Utilization-Adjusted TFP Across Countries: Measurement and Implications for International Comovement
w26800 Greg Kaplan
Piotr Zoch

Markups, Labor Market Inequality and the Nature of Work
w26796 Jordi Galí
Monetary Policy and Bubbles in a New Keynesian Model with Overlapping Generations
w26791 Narayana R. Kocherlakota
21st Century Macro
w26786 John C. Haltiwanger
James R. Spletzer

Between Firm Changes in Earnings Inequality: The Dominant Role of Industry Effects
w26778 Olivier Coibion
Dimitris Georgarakos
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Forward Guidance and Household Expectations
w26771 Benjamin M. Hébert
Jennifer La'O

Information Acquisition, Efficiency, and Non-Fundamental Volatility
w26770 Fabian Eckert
Andrés Gvirtz
Jack Liang
Michael Peters

A Method to Construct Geographical Crosswalks with an Application to US Counties since 1790
w26768 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana

Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research
w26756 Ricardo Lagos
Shengxing Zhang

The Limits of onetary Economics: On Money as a Latent Medium of Exchange
w26753 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Daniel Sanches
Linda Schilling
Harald Uhlig

Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Banking For All?
w26750 Robert J. Hodrick
An Exploration of Trend-Cycle Decomposition Methodologies in Simulated Data
w26745 John H. Cochrane
A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt
w26740 Matteo Leombroni
Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider
Ciaran Rogers

Inflation and the Price of Real Assets
w26738 Daron Acemoglu
Claire LeLarge
Pascual Restrepo

Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France
w26723 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Mathias Trabandt

Why is Unemployment so Countercyclical?
w26722 Alexander Bick
Adam Blandin
Richard Rogerson

Hours and Wages
w26721 Sebastian Di Tella
Robert E. Hall

Risk Premium Shocks Can Create Inefficient Recessions
w26714 Murillo Campello
Gustavo S. Cortes
Fabricio d'Almeida
Gaurav Kankanhalli

Exporting Uncertainty: The Impact of Brexit on Corporate America
w26711 Mark Bils
Peter J. Klenow
Cian Ruane

Misallocation or Mismeasurement?
w26704 Stefanie Stantcheva
Dynamic Taxation
w26702 N. Gregory Mankiw
The Past and Future of Econ 101: The John R. Commons Award Lecture
w26699 Oded Galor
Ömer Özak
Assaf Sarid

Linguistic Traits and Human Capital Formation
w26694 Raven Molloy
Christopher Smith
Abigail K. Wozniak

Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails
w26686 Timothy J. Besley
Isabelle A. Roland
John Van Reenen

The Aggregate Consequences of Default Risk: Evidence from Firm-level Data
w26681 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Unpacking Skill Bias: Automation and New Tasks
w26672 David Romer
In Praise of Confidence Intervals
w26671 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel P. Mihalache

Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)
w26667 Harold L. Cole
Dirk Krueger
George J. Mailath
Yena Park

Social Capital: A Double-Edged Sword
w26666 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
w26665 Serguey Braguinsky
Atsushi Ohyama
Tetsuji Okazaki
Chad Syverson

Product Innovation, Product Diversification, and Firm Growth: Evidence from Japan's Early Industrialization
w26661 Seema Jayachandran
Microentrepreneurship in Developing Countries
w26655 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Effects of Fiscal Policy on Credit Markets
w26654 Antoine Camous
Russell Cooper

Political Activism and the Provision of Dynamic Incentives
w26651 Charles I. Jones
The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population
w26650 N. Gregory Mankiw
A Skeptic's Guide to Modern Monetary Theory
w26648 Leland Bybee
Bryan T. Kelly
Asaf Manela
Dacheng Xiu

The Structure of Economic News
w26647 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie
Ludwig Straub

Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in an Estimated HANK Model
w26643 Mark A. Aguiar
Mark Bils
Corina Boar

Who Are the Hand-to-Mouth?
w26637 Efraim Benmelech
Nitish Kumar
Raghuram Rajan

The Decline of Secured Debt
w26635 Corina Boar
Dynastic Precautionary Savings
w26630 Jiri Slacalek
Oreste Tristani
Giovanni L. Violante

Household Balance Sheet Channels of Monetary Policy: A Back of the Envelope Calculation for the Euro Area
w26628 Andrew B. Abel
Stavros Panageas

Precautionary Saving in a Financially-Constrained Firm
w26625 Rodrigo Adão
Martin Beraja
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Technological Transitions with Skill Heterogeneity Across Generations
w26613 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Deterministic Debt Cycles in Open Economies with Flow Collateral Constraints
w26609 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Ahmed Tahoun

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty
w26607 Nicolae B. Gârleanu
Stavros Panageas

Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: A Different Approach
w26606 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions
w26603 Cailin R. Slattery
Owen M. Zidar

Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives

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