NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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NBER Papers on Asset Pricing Program

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2021
w28869 Rohan Kekre
Moritz Lenel

Monetary Policy, Redistribution, and Risk Premia
w28854 Long Chen
Yadong Huang
Shumiao Ouyang
Wei Xiong

The Data Privacy Paradox and Digital Demand
w28843 Andreas Fuster
Aurel Hizmo
Lauren Lambie-Hanson
James Vickery
Paul S. Willen

How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
w28827 Julian di Giovanni
Galina Hale

Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
w28824 Nicolae B. Gârleanu
Stavros Panageas
Geoffery X. Zheng

A Long and a Short Leg Make For a Wobbly Equilibrium
w28806 Lars E.O. Svensson
Household Debt Overhang Did Hardly Cause a Larger Spending Fall during the Financial Crisis in the UK
w28800 Sean Cao
Wei Jiang
Junbo L. Wang
Baozhong Yang

From Man vs. Machine to Man + Machine: The Art and AI of Stock Analyses
w28796 Stephen L. Ross
Tingyu Zhou

Loss Aversion in Housing Sales Prices: Evidence from Focal Point Bias
w28788 Laurent E. Calvet
John Y. Campbell
Francisco Gomes
Paolo Sodini

The Cross-Section of Household Preferences
w28781 Stephen L. Ross
Yuan Wang

High Cost Lenders and the Geographic Concentration of Foreclosures
w28777 Wenxin Du
Jesse Schreger

CIP Deviations, the Dollar, and Frictions in International Capital Markets
w28776 Lars E.O. Svensson
Household Debt Overhang Did Hardly Cause a Larger Spending Fall during the Financial Crisis in Australia
w28764 Ana Babus
Kinda Cheryl Hachem

Regulation and Security Design in Concentrated Markets
w28749 Francesco Bianchi
Howard Kung
Roberto Gomez Cram

Using Social Media to Identify the Effects of Congressional Partisanship on Asset Prices
w28732 Jose Pizarro
Eduardo S. Schwartz

Optimal Harvest with Multiple Fishing Zones, Endogenous Price and Global Uncertainty
w28730 Kazi Iqbal
Asadul Islam
John A. List
Vy Nguyen

Myopic Loss Aversion and Investment Decisions: from the Laboratory to the Field
w28729 Ana Babus
Cecilia Parlatore

Strategic Fragmented Markets
w28697 Gikas Hardouvelis
Georgios Karalas
Dimitri Vayanos

The Distribution of Investor Beliefs, Stock Ownership and Stock Returns
w28692 Valentin Haddad
Tyler Muir

Do Intermediaries Matter for Aggregate Asset Prices?
w28691 Brian Boyer
Taylor D. Nadauld
Keith P. Vorkink
Michael S. Weisbach

Discount Rate Risk in Private Equity: Evidence from Secondary Market Transactions
w28687 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Marco C. Sammon

What Triggers Stock Market Jumps?
w28675 Arpit Gupta
Vrinda Mittal
Jonas Peeters
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Flattening the Curve: Pandemic-Induced Revaluation of Urban Real Estate
w28658 Alyssa G. Anderson
Wenxin Du
Bernd Schlusche

Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks
w28654 Makoto Nirei
José A. Scheinkman

Repricing Avalanches
w28628 Chi Heem Wong
Dexin Li
Nina Wang
Jonathan Gruber
Rena M. Conti
Andrew W. Lo

Estimating the Financial Impact of Gene Therapy in the U.S.
w28624 Itzhak Ben-David
Jiacui Li
Andrea Rossi
Yang Song

Discontinued Positive Feedback Trading and the Decline of Momentum Profitability
w28615 Itay Goldstein
Chester S. Spatt
Mao Ye

Big Data in Finance
w28613 Daniel L. Greenwald
Matteo Leombroni
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Financial and Total Wealth Inequality with Declining Interest Rates
w28599 Peter M. DeMarzo
Zhiguo He
Fabrice Tourre

Sovereign Debt Ratchets and Welfare Destruction
w28595 Harrison Hong
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Welfare Consequences of Sustainable Finance
w28592 Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Tho Pham
Oleksandr Talavera

The Voice of Monetary Policy
w28580 William N. Goetzmann
Christophe Spaenjers
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Real and Private-Value Assets
w28570 Torben G. Andersen
Rasmus T. Varneskov

Testing for Parameter Instability and Structural Change in Persistent Predictive Regressions
w28569 Torben G. Andersen
Rasmus T. Varneskov

Consistent Local Spectrum (LCM) Inference for Predictive Return Regressions
w28568 Torben G. Andersen
Rasmus T. Varneskov

Consistent Inference for Predictive Regressions in Persistent Economic Systems
w28473 Thomas J. Sargent
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Stochastic Earnings Growth and Equilibrium Wealth Distributions
w28559 Viral V. Acharya
Robert F. Engle III
Sascha Steffen

Why Did Bank Stocks Crash During COVID-19?
w28528 Jacky Lin
Genevieve C. Selden
John B. Shoven
Clemens Sialm

Replicating the Dow Jones Industrial Average
w28515 Sida Li
Mao Ye
Miles Zheng

Financial Regulation, Clientele Segmentation, and Stock Exchange Order Types
w28513 John H. Cochrane
Portfolios for Long-Term Investors
w28510 Patrick Bolton
Marcin Kacperczyk

Global Pricing of Carbon-Transition Risk
w28501 Juliane Begenau
Tim Landvoigt

Financial Regulation in a Quantitative Model of the Modern Banking System
w28479 Paolina C. Medina
Vrinda Mittal
Michaela Pagel

The Effect of Stock Ownership on Individual Spending and Loyalty
w28461 Morris A. Davis
Andra C. Ghent
Jesse M. Gregory

The Work-from-Home Technology Boon and its Consequences
w28459 Harold L. Cole
Daniel Neuhann
Guillermo Ordoñez

Asymmetric Information and Sovereign Debt: Theory Meets Mexican Data
w28444 Jennifer N. Carpenter
Fangzhou Lu
Robert F. Whitelaw

The Price and Quantity of Interest Rate Risk
w28432 Theis Ingerslev Jensen
Bryan T. Kelly
Lasse Heje Pedersen

Is There A Replication Crisis In Finance?
w28426 Alp Simsek
The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation
w28418 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Veronika Penciakova
Nick Sander

COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 "Time Bomb"?
w28408 Pooya Molavi
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi
Andrea Vedolin

Model Complexity, Expectations, and Asset Prices
w28369 Itzhak Ben-David
Francesco Franzoni
Byungwook Kim
Rabih Moussawi

Competition for Attention in the ETF Space
w28367 Aifan Ling
Jianjun Miao
Neng Wang

Robust Financial Contracting and Investment
w28356 Marco Del Angel
Caroline Fohlin
Marc D. Weidenmier

Do Global Pandemics Matter for Stock Prices? Lessons from the 1918 Spanish Flu
w28348 Kerry Back
Bruce I. Carlin
Seyed Mohammad Kazempour

The Asset Pricing Implications of Plausible Deniability
w28320 Steven J. Davis
Dingqian Liu
Xuguang Simon Sheng

Stock Prices, Lockdowns, and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus
2020
w28306 Jonathan H. Wright
Event-day Options
w28302 Jeremy Fouliard
Michael Howell
Hélène Rey

Answering the Queen: Machine Learning and Financial Crises
w28298 Patrick Bolton
Ye Li
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits
w28285 Prasanna Tambe
Lorin Hitt
Daniel Rock
Erik Brynjolfsson

Digital Capital and Superstar Firms
w28284 Jess Benhabib
Xuewen Liu
Pengfei Wang

Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics: An Expected Utility Framework
w28276 Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
Informal Central Bank Communication
w28265 Ashley Langer
Derek Lemoine

What Were the Odds? Estimating the Market's Probability of Uncertain Events
w28261 Roger Farmer
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity & Wealth Inequality
w28260 Mikhail Chernov
Magnus Dahlquist
Lars A. Lochstoer

Pricing Currency Risks
w28253 Hao Jiang
Dimitri Vayanos
Lu Zheng

Tracking Biased Weights: Asset Pricing Implications of Value-Weighted Indexing
w28252 Greg Buchak
Gregor Matvos
Tomasz Piskorski
Amit Seru

Why is Intermediating Houses so Difficult? Evidence from iBuyers
w28238 Wayne E. Ferson
Junbo L. Wang

A Panel Regression Approach to Holdings-based Fund Performance Measures
w28234 Michael Bailey
Drew M. Johnston
Martin Koenen
Theresa Kuchler
Dominic Russel
Johannes Stroebel

Social Networks Shape Beliefs and Behavior: Evidence from Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic
w28226 Stefano Giglio
Bryan T. Kelly
Johannes Stroebel

Climate Finance
w28210 Akshaya Jha
Stephen A. Karolyi
Nicholas Z. Muller

Polluting Public Funds: The Effect of Environmental Regulation on Municipal Bonds.
w28204 Xavier Gabaix
Ralph S. J. Koijen

Granular Instrumental Variables
w28198 G. William Schwert
The Remarkable Growth in Financial Economics, 1974-2020
w28196 Chris Florakis
Christodoulos Louca
Roni Michaely
Michael Weber

Cybersecurity Risk
w28186 Bernard Dumas
Marcel Savioz

A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities
w28185 Bernard Dumas
Tymur Gabuniya
Richard C. Marston

Firms' Exposures to Geographic Risks
w28184 Anna Cieslak
Hao Pang

Common Shocks in Stocks and Bonds
w28175 Sylvain Catherine
Constantine Yannelis

The Distributional Effects of Student Loan Forgiveness
w28156 Jie Cao
Sheridan Titman
Xintong Zhan
Weiming Zhang

ESG Preference, Institutional Trading, and Stock Return Patterns
w28140 Yacine Aït-Sahalia
Jean Jacod
Dacheng Xiu

Inference on Risk Premia in Continuous-Time Asset Pricing Models
w28134 Matthias Fleckenstein
Francis A. Longstaff

Private Equity Returns: Empirical Evidence from the Business Credit Card Securitization Market
w28127 Viral V. Acharya
Timothy Johnson
Suresh Sundaresan
Steven Zheng

The Value of a Cure: An Asset Pricing Perspective
w28119 Sebastian Infante
Guillermo Ordoñez

The Collateral Link between Volatility and Risk Sharing
w28118 Zhiguo He
Jing Huang
Jidong Zhou

Open Banking: Credit Market Competition When Borrowers Own the Data
w28103 Itzhak Ben-David
Jiacui Li
Andrea Rossi
Yang Song

Advice-Driven Demand and Systematic Price Fluctuations
w28102 Lars A. Lochstoer
Tyler Muir

Volatility Expectations and Returns
w28097 Michael D. Bordo
John V. Duca

How New Fed Corporate Bond Programs Dampened the Financial Accelerator in the Covid-19 Recession
w28092 Kaiji Chen
Qing Wang
Tong Xu
Tao Zha

Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of LTV Policy: Evidence from China's Micro Data
w28088 Yueran Ma
José A. Scheinkman

Going-Concern Debt of Financial Intermediaries
w28071 Lauren Cohen
Umit Gurun
Danielle Li

Internal Deadlines, Drug Approvals, and Safety Problems
w28063 Claire Yurong Hong
Xiaomeng Lu
Jun Pan

FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking
w28056 Andrea L. Eisfeldt
Edward Kim
Dimitris Papanikolaou

Intangible Value
w28054 Mao Ye
Miles Zheng
Xiongshi Li

Price Ceiling, Market Structure, and Payout Policies
w28038 Justin Birru
Sinan Gokkaya
Xi Liu
René M. Stulz

Who Benefits from Analyst "Top Picks"?
w28029 Matthias Fleckenstein
Francis A. Longstaff

The Market Risk Premium for Unsecured Consumer Credit Risk
w28028 Jonathan A. Parker
Antoinette Schoar
Yang Sun

Retail Financial Innovation and Stock Market Dynamics: The Case of Target Date Funds
w28020 Anil K Kashyap
Natalia Kovrijnykh
Jian Li
Anna Pavlova

Is There Too Much Benchmarking in Asset Management?
w28016 Nathan Foley-Fisher
Gary B. Gorton
Stéphane Verani

Adverse Selection Dynamics in Privately-Produced Safe Debt Markets
w28010 Michael Boutros
Itzhak Ben-David
John R. Graham
Campbell R. Harvey
John W. Payne

The Persistence of Miscalibration
w28002 Robert J. Barro
r Minus g
w28001 Hang Bai
Lu Zhang

Searching for the Equity Premium
w27990 Lauren Cohen
Umit G. Gurun
Quoc H. Nguyen

The ESG-Innovation Disconnect: Evidence from Green Patenting
w27985 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

Some Facts about Dominant Firms
w27979 Alexander W. Butler
Bruce I. Carlin
Alan D. Crane
Boyang Liu
James P. Weston

The Value of Social Status
w27976 Itzhak Ben-David
Utpal Bhattacharya
Stacey E. Jacobsen

Do Acquirer Announcement Returns Reflect Value Creation?
w27973 Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel

Social Finance
w27971 John B. Shoven
Daniel B. Walton

An Analysis of the Performance of Target Date Funds
w27969 Svetlana Bender
James J. Choi
Danielle Dyson
Adriana Z. Robertson

Millionaires Speak: What Drives Their Personal Investment Decisions?
w27961 Scott R. Baker
Aniket Baksy
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Jonathan A. Rodden

Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty
w27959 Itamar Drechsler
Alan Moreira
Alexi Savov

Liquidity and Volatility
w27953 Benjamin M. Hébert
Externalities as Arbitrage
w27950 Sean Cao
Wei Jiang
Baozhong Yang
Alan L. Zhang

How to Talk When a Machine is Listening: Corporate Disclosure in the Age of AI
w27942 Frederik P. Schlingemann
René M. Stulz

Have Exchange-Listed Firms Become Less Important for the Economy?
w27927 Anusha Chari
Karlye Dilts Stedman
Christian Lundblad

Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-on/Risk-off and Emerging Market Tail Risk
w27892 Sofonias Korsaye
Fabio Trojani
Andrea Vedolin

The Global Factor Structure of Exchange Rates
w27883 Vincent Glode
Christian Opp

Renegotiation in Debt Chains
w27867 Steven J. Davis
Stephen Hansen
Cristhian Seminario-Amez

Firm-Level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19
w27866 Ivo Welch
The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd
w27864 Ian Dew-Becker
Stefano Giglio

Cross-Sectional Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Evidence from 40 Years of Options Data
w27861 Erica X.N. Li
Tao Zha
Ji Zhang
Hao Zhou

Does Fiscal Policy Matter for Stock-Bond Return Correlation?
w27860 Victor Stango
Jonathan Zinman

Behavioral Biases are Temporally Stable
w27859 Ravi Jagannathan
Yang Zhang

A Return Based Measure of Firm Quality
w27858 Milton Harris
Christian Opp
Marcus Opp

The Aggregate Demand for Bank Capital
w27856 Carolin Pflueger
Gianluca Rinaldi

Why Does the Fed Move Markets so Much? A Model of Monetary Policy and Time-Varying Risk Aversion
w27849 Brian Fabo
Martina Jančoková
Elisabeth Kempf
Ľuboš Pástor

Fifty Shades of QE: Comparing Findings of Central Bankers and Academics
w27847 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Tony Zhang

The Economics of Currency Risk
w27844 Kimberly A. Berg
Nelson C. Mark

Uncertainty, Long-Run, and Monetary Policy Risks in a Two-Country Macro Model
w27843 Jules H. van Binsbergen
Xiao Han
Alejandro Lopez-Lira

Man vs. Machine Learning: The Term Structure of Earnings Expectations and Conditional Biases
w27833 Georgij Alekseev
Safaa Amer
Manasa Gopal
Theresa Kuchler
JW Schneider
Johannes Stroebel
Nils C. Wernerfelt

The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: Evidence from Owners, Managers, and Employees
w27829 Harrison Hong
Jeffrey D. Kubik
Neng Wang
Xiao Xu
Jinqiang Yang

Pandemics, Vaccines and an Earnings Damage Function
w27826 Eduardo Dávila
Optimal Financial Transaction Taxes
w27819 Refet S. Gürkaynak
A. Hakan Kara
Burçin Kısacıkoğlu
Sang Seok Lee

Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior
w27810 Lin William Cong
Ye Li
Neng Wang

Token-Based Platform Finance
w27809 Simon Gilchrist
Bin Wei
Vivian Z. Yue
Egon Zakrajšek

The Fed Takes on Corporate Credit Risk: An Analysis of the Efficacy of the SMCCF
w27786 Zhengyang Jiang
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt
w27784 Josue Cox
Daniel L. Greenwald
Sydney C. Ludvigson

What Explains the COVID-19 Stock Market?
w27745 Erol Akcay
David Hirshleifer

Social Finance: Cultural Evolution, Transmission Bias and Market Dynamics
w27742 Andrew B. Abel
Stavros Panageas

Social Distancing, Vaccination and the Paradoxical Optimality of an Endemic Equilibrium
w27740 Scott R. Baker
Stephanie G. Johnson
Lorenz Kueng

Financial Returns to Household Inventory Management
w27739 Julien Acalin
Alessandro Rebucci

Global Business and Financial Cycles: A Tale of Two Capital Account Regimes
w27712 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect
w27707 Scott R. Baker
Brian Baugh
Marco C. Sammon

Measuring Customer Churn and Interconnectedness
w27697 Kenneth S. Rogoff
Yuanchen Yang

Peak China Housing
w27690 Shumiao Ouyang
Jiaheng Yu
Ravi Jagannathan

Life Cycle Cash Flows of Ventures
w27682 Zhengyang Jiang
Arvind Krishnamurthy
Hanno Lustig

Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle
w27676 John Y. Campbell
Nuno Clara
João F. Cocco

Structuring Mortgages for Macroeconomic Stability
w27665 Zhiguo He
Maggie Rong Hu
Zhenping Wang
Vincent Yao

Valuation of Long-Term Property Rights under Political Uncertainty
w27655 Söhnke M. Bartram
Mark Grinblatt
Yoshio Nozawa

Book-to-Market, Mispricing, and the Cross-Section of Corporate Bond Returns
w27653 Zhuang Liu
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

Data Privacy and Temptation
w27648 Irem Demirci
Miguel A. Ferreira
Pedro Matos
Clemens Sialm

How Global is Your Mutual Fund? International Diversification from Multinationals
w27638 Richard Sias
Laura Starks
Harry J. Turtle

Molecular Genetics, Risk Aversion, Return Perceptions, and Stock Market Participation
w27623 Alexander W. Bartik
Zoe B. Cullen
Edward L. Glaeser
Michael Luca
Christopher T. Stanton
Adi Sunderam

The Targeting and Impact of Paycheck Protection Program Loans to Small Businesses
w27615 Robin Greenwood
Samuel G. Hanson
Jeremy C. Stein
Adi Sunderam

A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
w27610 Michael J. Fishman
Jonathan A. Parker
Ludwig Straub

A Dynamic Theory of Lending Standards
w27573 Mathias Kronlund
Veronika K. Pool
Clemens Sialm
Irina Stefanescu

Out of Sight No More? The Effect of Fee Disclosures on 401(k) Investment Allocations
w27559 Antonio Falato
Itay Goldstein
Ali Hortaçsu

Financial Fragility in the COVID-19 Crisis: The Case of Investment Funds in Corporate Bond Markets
w27551 Lubos Pastor
M. Blair Vorsatz

Mutual Fund Performance and Flows During the COVID-19 Crisis
w27527 Daniel L. Tortorice
David E. Bloom
Paige Kirby
John Regan

A Theory of Social Impact Bonds
w27510 Andrew N. Greenland
Mihai Ion
John W. Lopresti
Peter K. Schott

Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization
w27500 Mikhail Chernov
Drew D. Creal
Peter Hördahl

Sovereign Credit and Exchange Rate Risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Local Currency Bonds
w27499 Manuel Adelino
William B. McCartney
Antoinette Schoar

The Role of Government and Private Institutions in Credit Cycles in the U.S. Mortgage Market
w27491 Ricardo Correa
Wenxin Du
Gordon Y. Liao

U.S. Banks and Global Liquidity
w27487 Antoinette Schoar
Kelvin Yeung
Luo Zuo

The Effect of Managers on Systematic Risk
w27482 Francis X. Diebold
Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession
w27470 Alexander F. Wagner
Richard J. Zeckhauser
Alexandre Ziegler

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Which Firms Won? Which Lost?
w27454 Itzhak Ben-David
Justin Birru
Andrea Rossi

The Performance of Hedge Fund Performance Fees
w27439 Julian Kozlowski
Laura Veldkamp
Venky Venkateswaran

Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19
w27438 David Blanchett
Michael S. Finke
Jonathan Reuter

Portfolio Delegation and 401(k) Plan Participant Responses to COVID-19
w27431 Raj Chetty
John N. Friedman
Nathaniel Hendren
Michael Stepner
The Opportunity Insights Team

The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data
w27418 David Altig
Scott R. Baker
Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Philip Bunn
Scarlet Chen
Steven J. Davis
Julia Leather
Brent H. Meyer
Emil Mihaylov
Paul Mizen
Nicholas B. Parker
Thomas Renault
Pawel Smietanka
Greg Thwaites

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27416 Zhiguo He
Stefan Nagel
Zhaogang Song

Treasury Inconvenience Yields during the COVID-19 Crisis
w27412 Nicolas L. Bottan
Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices
w27410 Jacob Boudoukh
Ronen Israel
Matthew P. Richardson

Biases in Long-Horizon Predictive Regressions
w27406 Francesco Bianchi
Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma

Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
w27402 Ralph S. J. Koijen
Robert J. Richmond
Motohiro Yogo

Which Investors Matter for Equity Valuations and Expected Returns?
w27399 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

Managing Households' Expectations with Unconventional Policies
w27396 Robin Greenwood
Samuel G. Hanson
Andrei Shleifer
Jakob Ahm Sørensen

Predictable Financial Crises
w27388 Bryan T. Kelly
Semyon Malamud
Lasse H. Pedersen

Principal Portfolios
w27387 Niels J. Gormsen
Ralph S. J. Koijen

Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations
w27380 Samuel M. Hartzmark
David H. Solomon

Reconsidering Returns
w27367 Jules H. van Binsbergen
Duration-Based Stock Valuation: Reassessing Stock Market Performance and Volatility
w27361 Vincent Glode
Christian C. Opp
Ruslan Sverchkov

To Pool or Not to Pool? Security Design in OTC Markets
w27355 Mahyar Kargar
Benjamin Lester
David Lindsay
Shuo Liu
Pierre-Olivier Weill
Diego Zúñiga

Corporate Bond Liquidity During the COVID-19 Crisis
w27354 Pierre-Olivier Weill
The search theory of OTC markets
w27342 Ralph S. J. Koijen
Motohiro Yogo

Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System
w27339 Jonathan S. Hartley
Alessandro Rebucci
Daniel Jiménez

An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies
w27330 Dimitris Papanikolaou
Lawrence D.W. Schmidt

Working Remotely and the Supply-side Impact of Covid-19
w27327 David Danz
Lise Vesterlund
Alistair J. Wilson

Belief Elicitation: Limiting Truth Telling with Information on Incentives
w27313 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets
w27308 George-Marios Angeletos
Zhen Huo
Karthik A. Sastry

Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory
w27305 Xin Liu
Shang-Jin Wei
Yifan Zhou

A Liberalization Spillover: From Equities to Loans
w27299 Theresa Kuchler
Yan Li
Lin Peng
Johannes Stroebel
Dexin Zhou

Social Proximity to Capital: Implications for Investors and Firms
w27292 Viral V. Acharya
Katharina Bergant
Matteo Crosignani
Tim Eisert
Fergal J. McCann

The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies
w27289 Michael Barnett
Greg Buchak
Constantine Yannelis

Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty
w27283 Pedro Bordalo
Nicola Gennaioli
Rafael La Porta
Andrei Shleifer

Expectations of Fundamentals and Stock Market Puzzles
w27272 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel
Stephen Utkus

Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash
w27266 Yan Liu
Jing Cynthia Wu

Reconstructing the Yield Curve
w27257 Xiaohong Chen
Lars P. Hansen
Peter G. Hansen

Robust Identification of Investor Beliefs
w27231 Patrick Augustin
Mikhail Chernov
Lukas Schmid
Dongho Song

The term structure of CIP violations
w27227 Alexander M. Chinco
Samuel M. Hartzmark
Abigail B. Sussman

Necessary Evidence For A Risk Factor's Relevance
w27222 Lin William Cong
Ye Li
Neng Wang

Tokenomics: Dynamic Adoption and Valuation
w27218 Harrison Hong
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks
w27213 Gonzalo Asis
Anusha Chari
Adam Haas

In Search of Distress Risk in Emerging Markets
w27212 Jonathan T. Vu
Benjamin K. Kaplan
Shomesh Chaudhuri
Monique K. Mansoura
Andrew W. Lo

Financing Vaccines for Global Health Security
w27207 Vadim Elenev
Tim Landvoigt
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?
w27179 Guillermo Ordoñez
Facundo Piguillem

Savings and Saving Rates: Up or Down?
w27176 Andrew W. Lo
Kien Wei Siah
Chi Heem Wong

Estimating Probabilities of Success of Vaccine and Other Anti-Infective Therapeutic Development Programs
w27175 Shomesh Chaudhuri
Andrew W. Lo
Danying Xiao
Qingyang Xu

Bayesian Adaptive Clinical Trials for Anti-Infective Therapeutics during Epidemic Outbreaks
w27171 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

China's Model of Managing the Financial System
w27168 Valentin Haddad
Alan Moreira
Tyler Muir

When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed's Response
w27160 Augustin Landier
David Thesmar

Earnings Expectations in the COVID Crisis
w27158 Viral V. Acharya
Matteo Crosignani
Tim Eisert
Christian Eufinger

Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe
w27155 Nicholas C. Barberis
Lawrence J. Jin
Baolian Wang

Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies
w27141 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending
w27136 Richard K. Lyons
Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj

What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?
w27116 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Sebastian A. Merkel
Yuliy Sannikov

The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble
w27113 Kyriakos T. Chousakos
Gary B. Gorton
Guillermo Ordoñez

The Macroprudential Role of Stock Markets
w27108 Geert Bekaert
Eric Engstrom
Andrey Ermolov

The Variance Risk Premium in Equilibrium Models
w27097 Scott R. Baker
R. A. Farrokhnia
Steffen Meyer
Michaela Pagel
Constantine Yannelis

Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments
w27092 Sergey Chernenko
Adi Sunderam

Measuring the Perceived Liquidity of the Corporate Bond Market
w27088 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Wenhao Li

Dissecting Mechanisms of Financial Crises: Intermediation and Sentiment
w27066 Harrison Hong
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Mitigating Disaster Risks in the Age of Climate Change
w27065 Jonathan S. Hartley
Urban Jermann

Should the U.S. Government Issue Floating Rate Notes?
w27051 Christopher Hansman
Harrison Hong
Áureo de Paula
Vishal Singh

A Sticky-Price View of Hoarding
w27044 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs: Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a "Covid-19" Shock
w27034 Lydia Cox
Gernot Müller
Ernesto Pastén
Raphael Schoenle
Michael Weber

Big G
w27025 John Y. Campbell
Roman Sigalov

Portfolio Choice with Sustainable Spending: A Model of Reaching for Yield
w27022 Craig Doidge
G. Andrew Karolyi
René M. Stulz

Is Financial Globalization in Reverse After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis? Evidence from Corporate Valuations
w27017 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View
w27013 Michael D. Bauer
Eric T. Swanson

The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the "Fed Information Effect"
w26970 Pascal J. Maenhout
Andrea Vedolin
Hao Xing

Generalized Robustness and Dynamic Pessimism
w26987 Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma
Serena Ng

COVID-19 and The Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters
w26985 Luigi Bocola
Guido Lorenzoni

Risk Sharing Externalities
w26975 William Belmont
Bruce Sacerdote
Ranjan Sehgal
Ian Van Hoek

Relief Rally: Senators As Feckless As the Rest of Us at Stock Picking
w26974 Stavros Panageas
The Implications of Heterogeneity and Inequality for Asset Pricing
w26971 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Markus Schwedeler
Ahmed Tahoun

Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: COVID-19, SARS, and H1N1
w26968 Patrick Bolton
Marcin Kacperczyk

Do Investors Care about Carbon Risk?
w26964 Leonid Kogan
Dimitris Papanikolaou
Lawrence D. W. Schmidt
Jae Song

Technological Innovation and Labor Income Risk
w26962 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
w26960 Michael Bailey
Abhinav Gupta
Sebastian Hillenbrand
Theresa Kuchler
Robert J. Richmond
Johannes Stroebel

International Trade and Social Connectedness
w26950 Laura Alfaro
Anusha Chari
Andrew N. Greenland
Peter K. Schott

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
w26945 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Kyle J. Kost
Marco C. Sammon
Tasaneeya Viratyosin

The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19
w26943 Joseph Kopecky
Alan M. Taylor

The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium
w26935 Gianluca Benigno
Andrew Foerster
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
w26934 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
w26927 Maryam Farboodi
Adrien Matray
Laura Veldkamp
Venky Venkateswaran

Where Has All the Data Gone?
w26920 Jaanika Meriküll
Merike Kukk
Tairi Rõõm

What Explains the Gender Gap in Wealth? Evidence from Administrative Data
w26914 Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
Kelly Shue

The Gender Gap in Housing Returns
w26911 Hongqi Liu
Cameron Peng
Wei A. Xiong
Wei Xiong

Taming the Bias Zoo
w26908 Matthew Baron
Emil Verner
Wei Xiong

Banking Crises without Panics
w26907 Zhenyu Gao
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

Learning about the Neighborhood
w26898 Andrew B. Abel
Stavros Panageas

An Analytic Framework For Interpreting Investment Regressions In The Presence Of Financial Constraints
w26894 Anna Cieslak
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

The Economics of the Fed Put
w26855 Antonio Coppola
Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens
w26837 Francesco D’Acunto
Ulrike Malmendier
Michael Weber

Gender Roles and the Gender Expectations Gap
w26831 Julien Pénasse
Luc Renneboog
José A. Scheinkman

When a Master Dies: Speculation and Asset Float
w26823 Mehran Ebrahimian
Jessica Wachter

Risks to Human Capital
w26817 Francesco D’Acunto
Thomas Rauter
Christoph K. Scheuch
Michael Weber

Perceived Precautionary Savings Motives: Evidence from FinTech
w26816 Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

A Model of Cryptocurrencies
w26815 Yi Ding
Wei Xiong
Jinfan Zhang

Issuance Overpricing of China's Corporate Debt Securities
w26802 Patrick Bolton
Neng Wang
Jinqiang Yang

Leverage Dynamics and Financial Flexibility
w26799 Efraim Benmelech
Nitish Kumar
Raghuram Rajan

Secured Credit Spreads and the Issuance of Secured Debt
w26792 Hanming Fang
Yongqin Wang
Xian Wu

The Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from China
w26789 Arpit Gupta
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Constantine Kontokosta

Take the Q Train: Value Capture of Public Infrastructure Projects
w26778 Olivier Coibion
Dimitris Georgarakos
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Forward Guidance and Household Expectations
w26773 Todd M. Hazelkorn
Tobias J. Moskowitz
Kaushik Vasudevan

Beyond Basis Basics: Liquidity Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price
w26745 John H. Cochrane
A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt
w26740 Matteo Leombroni
Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider
Ciaran Rogers

Inflation and the Price of Real Assets
w26721 Sebastian Di Tella
Robert E. Hall

Risk Premium Shocks Can Create Inefficient Recessions
w26714 Murillo Campello
Gustavo S. Cortes
Fabricio d'Almeida
Gaurav Kankanhalli

Exporting Uncertainty: The Impact of Brexit on Corporate America
w26708 Valentin Haddad
Serhiy Kozak
Shrihari Santosh

Factor Timing
w26707 James J. Choi
Kevin Zhao

Did Mutual Fund Return Persistence Persist?
w26701 Marco Cipriani
Ana Fostel
Daniel Houser

Leverage and Asset Prices: An Experiment.
w26668 Benjamin Loos
Steffen Meyer
Michaela Pagel

The Consumption Effects of the Disposition to Sell Winners and Hold Losers
w26663 Gary B. Gorton
Private Money Production without Banks
w26648 Leland Bybee
Bryan T. Kelly
Asaf Manela
Dacheng Xiu

The Structure of Economic News
w26626 Jun Kyung Auh
Jennie Bai

Cross-Asset Information Synergy in Mutual Fund Families
w26609 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Ahmed Tahoun

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty
w26608 Mark L. Egan
Alexander MacKay
Hanbin Yang

Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds
w26607 Nicolae B. Gârleanu
Stavros Panageas

Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: A Different Approach
w26604 Kyle F. Herkenhoff
Gajendran Raveendranathan

Who Bears the Welfare Costs of Monopoly? The Case of the Credit Card Industry

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