TY  - JOUR
AU  - Dekle, Robert
TI  - The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 9367
PY  - 2002
Y2  - December 2002
DO  - 10.3386/w9367
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9367
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9367.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Robert Dekle
Department of Economics
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, CA  90089
Tel: 213-740-2134
E-Mail: dekle@usc.edu
M1  - published as Robert Dekle. "The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population," in Magnus Blomström, Jennifer Corbett, Fumio Hayashi and Anil Kashyap, editors, "Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan" University of Chicago Press (2003)

AB  - Japan's deteriorating fiscal situation has attracted international attention. I assess what current Japanese government policies mean for the future of public debt and the economy in general, given the inevitable aging of the population. I review how Japan got into this current fiscal mess, and then perform an analysis of some debt dynamics. With unchanged fiscal policies, Japan's public debt will rise to between 260% and 380% of GDP in 2030, and to between 700% and 1300% in 2040 -- clearly unsustainable levels. For the debt to be sustainable, significant increases in taxes, or cuts in government spending are necessary.
ER  -