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@techreport{NBERw9367,
 title = "The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population",
 author = "Dekle, Robert",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "9367",
 year = "2002",
 month = "December",
 doi = {10.3386/w9367},
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w9367",
 abstract = {Japan's deteriorating fiscal situation has attracted international attention. I assess what current Japanese government policies mean for the future of public debt and the economy in general, given the inevitable aging of the population. I review how Japan got into this current fiscal mess, and then perform an analysis of some debt dynamics. With unchanged fiscal policies, Japan's public debt will rise to between 260% and 380% of GDP in 2030, and to between 700% and 1300% in 2040 -- clearly unsustainable levels. For the debt to be sustainable, significant increases in taxes, or cuts in government spending are necessary.},
}