TY - JOUR AU - Bordo, Michael D AU - Eichengreen, Barry TI - Implications of the Great Depression for the Development of the International Monetary System JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series VL - No. 5883 PY - 1997 Y2 - January 1997 DO - 10.3386/w5883 UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w5883 L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w5883.pdf N1 - Author contact info: Michael D. Bordo Department of Economics Rutgers University New Jersey Hall 75 Hamilton Street New Brunswick, NJ 08901 Tel: 732/822-7152 Fax: 732/932-7416 E-Mail: bordo@econ.rutgers.edu Barry Eichengreen Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley 549 Evans Hall 3880 Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 Tel: 510/642-2772 Fax: 510/643-0926 E-Mail: eichengr@econ.Berkeley.edu M1 - published as Michael D. Bordo, Barry Eichengreen. "Implications of the Great Depression for the Development of the International Monetary System," in Michael D. Bordo, Claudia Goldin, and Eugene N. White, editors, "The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century" University of Chicago Press (1998) AB - In this paper we speculate about the evolution of the international monetary system in the last 2/3 of the 20th century absent the Great Depression but present the major post-Depression political and economic upheavals: WWII and II and the Cold War. We argue that without the Depression the gold-exchange standard of the 1920s would have persisted until the outbreak of WWI. It would have been suspended during the war and for a period of postwar reconstruction before being restored in the first half of the 1950s. The Bretton Woods Conference would not have taken place, and instead of a Bretton Woods System of pegged-but-adjustable exchange rates and restrictions on capital-account convertibility, an unreformed gold-exchange standard of pegged exchange rates and unlimited international capital mobility would have been restored. But this gold-exchange standard would have collapsed even earlier than actually was the case with Bretton Woods. The move toward floating exchange rates that followed would have taken place well before 1971 in our conterfactual We construct a model of the international monetary system from 1928-1971 and simulate its implications for the determination of the world price level and the durability of the hypothetical gold-exchange standard. We then examine, based on regressions for a 61-country panel, the implications for economic growth and resource allocation of allowing 1920s-style international capital mobility after World War II. Based on the implications of our model simula- tions and the capital controls regression we contemplate the implications for institution building and international cooperation of the `no Great Depression' scenario. ER -