TY  - JOUR
AU  - Atkeson, Andrew
AU  - Droste, Michael C
AU  - Mina, Michael
AU  - Stock, James H
TI  - Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 28031
PY  - 2020
Y2  - October 2020
DO  - 10.3386/w28031
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w28031
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w28031.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Andrew Atkeson
Bunche Hall 9381
Department of Economics
UCLA
Box 951477
Los Angeles, CA  90095-1477
Tel: 866/312-9770
Fax: 310/825-9528
E-Mail: andy@atkeson.net

Michael C. Droste
Department of Economics
Harvard University
Cambridge, MA 02138
E-Mail: mdroste@fas.harvard.edu

Michael J. Mina
Harvard Chan School of Public Health
Kresge Building
677 Huntington Avenue
Boston, MA 02115
USA
E-Mail: mmina@hsph.harvard.edu

James H. Stock
Department of Economics
Harvard University
Littauer Center M26
Cambridge, MA 02138
Tel: 617/496-0502
Fax: 617/495-7730
E-Mail: James_Stock@harvard.edu
AB  - We assess the economic value of screening testing programs as a policy response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the fiscal, macroeconomic, and health benefits of rapid SARS-CoV-2 screening testing programs far exceed their costs, with the ratio of economic benefits to costs typically in the range of 4-15 (depending on program details), not counting the monetized value of lives saved. Unless the screening test is highly specific, however, the signal value of the screening test alone is low, leading to concerns about adherence. Confirmatory testing increases the net economic benefits of screening tests by reducing the number of healthy workers in quarantine and by increasing adherence to quarantine measures. The analysis is undertaken using a behavioral SIR model for the United States with 5 age groups, 66 economic sectors, screening and diagnostic testing, and partial adherence to instructions to quarantine or to isolate.
ER  -