TY  - JOUR
AU  - Trajtenberg, Manuel
TI  - AI as the next GPT: a Political-Economy Perspective
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 24245
PY  - 2018
Y2  - January 2018
DO  - 10.3386/w24245
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w24245
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w24245.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Manuel Trajtenberg
Eitan Berglas School of Economics
Tel-Aviv University
Tel-Aviv 69978
ISRAEL
Tel: 972-3-640-9911
Fax: 972-3-640-9908
E-Mail: manuel@tauex.tau.ac.il
M1  - published as Manuel Trajtenberg. "Artificial Intelligence as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective," in Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors, "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda" University of Chicago Press (2019)

M3  - presented at "Economics of Artificial Intelligence", September 13-14, 2017
AB  - History suggests that dismal prophecies regarding the impact of great technological advances rarely come to pass. Yet, as many occupations will indeed vanish with the advent of AI as the new General Purpose Technology (GPT), we should search for ways to ameliorate the detrimental effects of AI, and enhance its positive ones, particularly in: (1) education and skills development: revamp the centuries-old “factory model” of education, and develop instead skills relevant for an AI-based economy – analytical, creative, interpersonal, and emotional. (2) The professionalization of personal care occupations, particularly in healthcare and education; these are to provide the bulk of future employment growth, yet as performed today involve little training and technology, and confer low wages. New, higher standards and academic requirements could be set for these occupations, which would enable AI to benefit both providers and users. (3) Affect the direction of technical advance – we distinguish between “human-enhancing innovations” (HEI), that magnify and enhance sensory, motoric, and other such human capabilities, and “human-replacing innovations” (HRI), which replace human intervention, and often leave for humans mostly “dumb” jobs. AI-based HEI’s have the potential to unleash a new wave of creativity and productivity, particularly in services, whereas HRI’s might just decrease employment and give rise to unworthy jobs.
ER  -