TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bessen, James
TI  - AI and Jobs: the role of demand
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 24235
PY  - 2018
Y2  - January 2018
DO  - 10.3386/w24235
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w24235
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w24235.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
James Bessen
Technology & Policy Research Initiative
BU School of Law
765 Commonwealth Ave.
Boston, MA 02215
E-Mail: jbessen@gmail.com
M1  - published as James Bessen. "Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: The Role of Demand," in Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors, "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda" University of Chicago Press (2019)

M3  - presented at "Economics of Artificial Intelligence", September 13-14, 2017
AB  - Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies will automate many jobs, but the effect on employment is not obvious. In manufacturing, technology has sharply reduced jobs in recent decades. But before that, for over a century, employment grew, even in industries experiencing rapid technological change. What changed? Demand was highly elastic at first and then became inelastic. The effect of artificial intelligence on jobs will similarly depend critically on the nature of demand. This paper presents a simple model of demand that accurately predicts the rise and fall of employment in the textile, steel and automotive industries. This model provides a useful framework for exploring how AI is likely to affect jobs over the next 10 or 20 years.
ER  -