TY - JOUR AU - Wang, Sun Ling AU - Ball, Eldon AU - Nehring, Richard AU - Williams, Ryan AU - Chau, Truong TI - Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series VL - No. 23533 PY - 2017 Y2 - June 2017 DO - 10.3386/w23533 UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w23533 L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w23533.pdf N1 - Author contact info: Sun Ling Wang Department of Agriculture 355 E Street, SW Washington, DC 20024 Tel: (202)694-5460 E-Mail: slwang@ers.usda.gov V. Eldon Ball Department of Agriculture 355 E Street, SW Washington, DC 20024 E-Mail: eball@ers.usda.gov Richard Nehring Department of Agriculture 355 E Street, SW Washington, DC 20024 E-Mail: RNEHRING@ers.usda.gov Ryan Williams Department of Agriculture 355 E Street SW Washington, DC 20024 E-Mail: RWILLIAMS@ers.usda.gov Truong Chau Pennsylvania State University E-Mail: tnchau@gmail.com M1 - published as Sun Ling Wang, Eldon Ball, Richard Nehring, Ryan Williams, Truong Chau. "Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on US Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection," in Wolfram Schlenker, editor, "Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior" University of Chicago Press (2019) M3 - presented at "Understanding Productivity Growth in Agriculture", May 11-12, 2017 AB - This paper employs a stochastic frontier approach to examine how climate change and extreme weather affect U.S. agricultural productivity using 1940-1970 historical weather data (mean and variation) as the norm. We have four major findings. First, using temperature humidity index (THI) load and Oury index for the period 1960-2010 we find each state has experienced different patterns of climate change in the past half century, with some states incurring drier and warmer conditions than others. Second, the higher the THI load (more heat waves) and the lower the Oury index (much drier) will tend to lower a state’s productivity. Third, the impacts of THI load shock and Oury index shock variables (deviations from historical norm fluctuations) on productivity are more robust than the level of THI and Oury index variables across specifications. Fourth, we project potential impacts of climate change and extreme weather on U.S. regional productivity based on the estimates. We find that the same degree changes in temperature or precipitation will have uneven impacts on regional productivities, with Delta, Northeast, and Southeast regions incurring much greater effects than other regions, using 2000-2010 as the reference period. ER -