TY  - JOUR
AU  - Chavas, Jean-Paul
TI  - Agro-Ecosystem Productivity and the Dynamic Response to Shocks
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 22624
PY  - 2016
Y2  - September 2016
DO  - 10.3386/w22624
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w22624
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w22624.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Jean-Paul Chavas
University of Wisconsin
Department of Agriculture & Applied Economics
Taylor Hall, 427 Lorch Street
Madison, WI 53706
Tel: (608) 261-1944
Fax: (608) 262-4376
E-Mail: jchavas@wisc.edu
M1  - published as Jean-Paul Chavas. "Agroecosystem Productivity and the Dynamic Response to Shocks," in Christopher B. Barrett, Michael R. Carter, and Jean-Paul Chavas, editors, "The Economics of Poverty Traps" University of Chicago Press (2019)

M3  - presented at "The Economics of Asset Accumulation and Poverty Traps", June 28-29, 2016
AB  - This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamic response to shocks, relying on a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model as a flexible representation of stochastic dynamics. The TQAR model can identify zones of stability/instability and characterize resilience and traps. Resilience means high odds of escaping from undesirable zones of instability toward zones that are more desirable and stable. Traps mean low odds of escaping from zones that are both undesirable and stable. The approach is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of productivity applied to historical data on wheat yield in Kansas over the period 1885-2012. The dynamics of this agroecosystem and its response to shocks are of interest as Kansas agriculture faced major droughts, including the catastrophic Dust Bowl of the 1930’s. The analysis identifies a zone of instability in the presence of successive adverse shocks. It also finds evidence of resilience. We associate the resilience with induced innovations in management and policy in response to adverse shocks.
ER  -