Is There A Case for a "Second Demographic Transition"? Three Distinctive Features of the Post-1960 U.S. Fertility Decline

Martha J. Bailey, Melanie E. Guldi, Brad J. Hershbein

NBER Working Paper No. 19599
Issued in October 2013, Revised in February 2014

---- Acknowledgments ----

We thank George Alter, John Bound, John DiNardo, Richard Easterlin, Melissa Kearney, Lisa Neidert, Paul Rhode, and Elyce Rotella, as well as the festschrift organizers, Leah Boustan, Carola Frydman, and Bob Margo. We also thank all participants for their helpful comments and suggestions. We are also grateful to two anonymous reviewers. The authors gratefully acknowledge use of the services and facilities of the Population Studies Center at the University of Michigan, funded by NICHD Center Grant R24 HD041028. Financial assistance was provided by the University of Michigan's Population Studies Center Eva Mueller Fund, the University of Michigan's Institute of Social Research's Graduate Student Research Assistant Tuition Support Grant, the University of Michigan Rackham Research Grant, and an NICHD Population Studies Center Trainee Grant (T32 HD0007339). Anna Erickson, Sayeh Nikpay, and Johannes Norling provided outstanding research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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