TY  - JOUR
AU  - Field, Alexander J
TI  - The Interwar Housing Cycle in the Light of 2001-2011: A Comparative Historical Approach
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 18796
PY  - 2013
Y2  - February 2013
DO  - 10.3386/w18796
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18796
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18796.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Alexander Field
Department of Economics
Santa Clara University
Santa Clara, CA   95053
Tel: 408-554-4348
E-Mail: afield@scu.edu
M1  - published as Alexander J. Field. "The Interwar Housing Cycle in the Light of 2001-2012: A Comparative Historical Perspective," in Eugene N. White, Kenneth Snowden, and Price Fishback, editors, "Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective" University of Chicago Press (2014)

M3  - presented at "Universities Research Conference", September 23-24, 2011
AB  - This paper examines the interwar housing cycle in comparison to what transpired in the United States between 2001 and 2011. The 1920s experienced a boom in construction and prolonged retardation in building in the 1930s, resulting in a swing in residential construction's share of GDP, and its absolute volume, that was larger than what has taken place in the 2000s.  In contrast, there was relatively little sustained movement in the real price of housing between 1919 and 1941, and the up and down price movements were remarkably modest, certainly in comparison with more recent experience.  The paper documents the higher degree of housing leverage in 2001-2011. And it documents a rate of foreclosure on residential housing post 2006 that is likely higher than during the 1930s.  It concludes that balance sheet problems resulting from a prior residential housing boom pose greater obstacles to recovery today than they did in the interwar period.
ER  -