TY  - JOUR
AU  - Berry, Steven T
AU  - Roberts, Michael J
AU  - Schlenker, Wolfram
TI  - Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Food Price Volatility
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 18659
PY  - 2012
Y2  - December 2012
DO  - 10.3386/w18659
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18659
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18659.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Steven T. Berry
Department of Economics
Yale University
Box 208264
37 Hillhouse Avenue
New Haven, CT 06520-8264
Tel: 203/432-3556
Fax: 203/432-6323
E-Mail: steven.berry@yale.edu

Michael J. Roberts
Department of Economics
Saunders 542
2424 Maile Way
Honolulu, HI 96822
Tel: 808-956-6310
E-Mail: mjrobert@hawaii.edu

Wolfram Schlenker
School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA)
Columbia University
420 West 118th St
New York, NY 10027
Tel: 212/854-1806
Fax: 212/854-5765
E-Mail: wolfram.schlenker@columbia.edu
M1  - published as Steven T. Berry, Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker. "Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Harvest Volatility," in Jean-Paul Chavas, David Hummels, and Brian D. Wright, editors, "The Economics of Food Price Volatility" University of Chicago Press (2014)

M3  - presented at "The Economics of Food Price Volatility Conference", August 15-16, 2012
AB  - Corn prices increased sharply in the summer of 2012 due to expected production shortfalls in the United States, which produces roughly 40% of the world's corn. A heat wave in July adversely affected corn production. We extend earlier statistical models of county-level corn yields in the Eastern United States by allowing the effect of various weather measures to vary in a flexible manner over the growing season: Extreme heat is especially harmful around a third into the growing season. This is the time when the 2012 heat wave hit the Corn Belt. Our model predicts 2012 corn yields will be 23% below trend. While extreme heat was significantly above normal, climate change scenarios suggest that the 2012 outcomes will soon be the new normal.
ER  -