TY  - JOUR
AU  - Berman, Nicolas
AU  - De Sousa, José
AU  - Martin, Philippe
AU  - Mayer, Thierry
TI  - Time to Ship During Financial Crises
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 18274
PY  - 2012
Y2  - August 2012
DO  - 10.3386/w18274
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18274
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18274.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Nicolas Berman
Aix-Marseille University 
(Aix-Marseille School of Economics)
Graduate Institute Geneva 
5-9 Boulevard Bourdet
CS 50498 13205 Marseille Cedex 1
France
E-Mail: nicolas.berman@univ-amu.fr

José De Sousa
University of Paris- Sud, RITM, and Sciences Po Pa
Department of Economics
54 Boulevard Desgranges
92331 Sceaux, Cedex, France
E-Mail: jose.de-sousa@u-psud.fr

Philippe Martin
SciencesPo
28, rue des Saints-Peres
75007 Paris
E-Mail: philippe.martin@sciencespo.fr

Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po, Paris
Department of Economics
28 rue des Saints-Peres
75007 Paris
France
E-Mail: thierry.mayer@sciences-po.fr
M1  - published as Nicolas Berman, José de Sousa, Philippe Martin, Thierry Mayer. "Time to Ship during Financial Crises," in Francesco Giavazzi and Kenneth D. West, organizers, "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012" University of Chicago Press (2013)

M3  - presented at "ISOM", June 15-16, 2012
AB  - We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are  indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005.
ER  -