TY  - JOUR
AU  - Sinai, Todd M
TI  - House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 18059
PY  - 2012
Y2  - May 2012
DO  - 10.3386/w18059
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18059
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18059.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Todd M. Sinai
University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School
1465 Steinberg Hall - Dietrich Hall
3620 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6302
Tel: 215/898-5390
Fax: 215/573-2220
E-Mail: sinai@wharton.upenn.edu
M1  - published as Todd Sinai. "House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles," in Edward L. Glaeser and Todd Sinai, editors, "Housing and the Financial Crisis" University of Chicago Press (2013)

M3  - presented at "Housing and the Financial Crisis", November 17-18, 2011
AB  - This paper describes six stylized patterns among housing markets in the United States that potential explanations of the housing boom and bust should seek to explain.  First, individual housing markets in the U.S. experienced considerable heterogeneity in the amplitudes of their cycles.  Second, the areas with the biggest boom-bust cycles in the 2000s also had the largest boom-busts in the 1980s and 1990s, with a few telling exceptions.  Third, the timing of the cycles differed across housing markets.  Fourth, the largest booms and busts, and their timing, seem to be clustered geographically.  Fifth, the cross sectional variance of annual house price changes rises in booms and declines in busts.  Finally, these stylized facts are robust to controlling for housing demand fundamentals - namely, rents, incomes, or employment - although changes in fundamentals are correlated with changes in prices.
ER  -