TY  - JOUR
AU  - Fukunaga, Ichiro
AU  - Hirakata, Naohisa
AU  - Sudo, Nao
TI  - The Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Industry-Level Production and Prices in the U.S. and Japan
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 15791
PY  - 2010
Y2  - March 2010
DO  - 10.3386/w15791
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15791
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w15791.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Ichiro Fukunaga
Bank of Japan
2-1-1 Nihonbashi-Hongokucho
Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103-8660
JAPAN
E-Mail: ichirou.fukunaga@boj.or.jp

Naohisa Hirakata
Bank of Japan
2-1-1 Nihonbashi-Hongokucho
Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103-8660
JAPAN
E-Mail: naohisa.hirakata@boj.or.jp

Nao Sudo
Bank of Japan
2-1-1 Nihonbashi-Hongokucho
Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103-8660
JAPAN
E-Mail: nao.sudou@boj.or.jp
M1  - published as Ichiro Fukunaga, Naohisa Hirakata, Nao Sudo. "The Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Industry-Level Production and Prices in the United States and Japan," in Takatoshi Ito and Andrew K. Rose, editors, "Commodity Prices and Markets" University of Chicago Press (2011)

M3  - presented at "East Asian Seminar on Economics", June 26-27, 2009
AB  - In this paper, we decompose oil price changes into their component parts following Kilian (2009) and estimate the dynamic effects of each component on industry-level production and prices in the U.S. and Japan using identified VAR models. The way oil price changes affect each industry depends on what kind of underlying shock drives oil price changes as well as on industry characteristics. Unexpected disruptions of oil supply act mainly as negative supply shocks for oil-intensive industries and act mainly as negative demand shocks for less oil-intensive industries. For most industries in the U.S., shocks to the global demand for all industrial commodities act mainly as positive demand shocks, and demand shocks that are specific to the global oil market act mainly as negative supply shocks. In Japan, the oil-specific demand shocks as well as the global demand shocks act mainly as positive demand shocks for many industries.
ER  -