TY  - JOUR
AU  - Giannone, Domenico
AU  - Lenza, Michele
AU  - Reichlin, Lucrezia
TI  - Business Cycles in the Euro Area
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 14529
PY  - 2008
Y2  - December 2008
DO  - 10.3386/w14529
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14529
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14529.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Domenico Giannone
Amazon.com
300 Boren Ave N.
Seattle, WA 98109
E-Mail: dgiannon2@gmail.com

Michele Lenza
European Central Bank
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt An Main
Germany
E-Mail: michele.lenza@ecb.int

Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Sussex Place
London NW1 4SA
UK 
E-Mail: lreichlin@london.edu
M1  - published as Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, Lucrezia Reichlin. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," in Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, editors, "Europe and the Euro" University of Chicago Press (2010)

M3  - presented at "Europe and the Euro", October 17-18, 2008
AB  - This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant change associated with the EMU can be detected. For the other countries, volatility has been historically higher and this has not changed in the last ten years. We also find that the aggregate euro area per-capita GDP growth since 1999 has been lower than what could have been predicted on the basis of historical experience and US observed developments. The gap between US and euro area GDP per capita level has been 30% on average since 1970 and there is no sign of catching up or of further widening.
ER  -