TY  - JOUR
AU  - Hanson, Gordon H
AU  - Robertson, Raymond
TI  - China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 14497
PY  - 2008
Y2  - November 2008
DO  - 10.3386/w14497
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14497
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14497.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Gordon H. Hanson
Harvard Kennedy School
Harvard University
79 John F. Kennedy St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
E-Mail: gordon_hanson@hks.harvard.edu

Raymond Robertson
Department of Economics
Macalester College
1600 Grand Ave
St. Paul MN 55105
Tel: 6516966739
Fax: 6516966746
E-Mail: robertson@tamu.edu
M1  - published as Gordon H. Hanson, Raymond Robertson. "China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries," in Robert C. Feenstra and Shang-Jin Wei, editors, "China's Growing Role in World Trade" University of Chicago Press (2010)

M3  - presented at "China and World Trade Conference", August 3-4, 2007
AB  - In this paper, we examine the impact of China's growth on developing countries that specialize in manufacturing.  Over 2000-2005, manufacturing accounted for 32% of China's GDP and 89% of its merchandise exports, making it more specialized in the sector than any other large developing economy.  Using the gravity model of trade, we decompose bilateral trade into components associated with demand conditions in importing countries, supply conditions in exporting countries, and bilateral trade costs.  We identify 10 developing economies for which manufacturing represents more than 75% of merchandise exports (Hungary, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, the Philippines, Poland, Romania, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Turkey), which are in theory the countries most exposed to the adverse consequences of China's export growth.  Our results suggest that had China's export supply capacity been constant over the 1995-2005 period, demand for exports would have been 0.8% to 1.6% higher in the 10 countries studied.  Thus, even for the developing countries most specialized in export manufacturing, China's expansion has represented only a modest negative shock.
ER  -