TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ashraf, Quamrul H
AU  - Lester, Ashley
AU  - Weil, David N
TI  - When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 14449
PY  - 2008
Y2  - October 2008
DO  - 10.3386/w14449
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14449
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w14449.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Quamrul Ashraf
Williams College
Department of Economics
24 Hopkins Hall Drive
Williamstown, MA 01267
Tel: (413) 597-3051
Fax: (413) 597-4045
E-Mail: Quamrul.H.Ashraf@williams.edu

Ashley Lester
111 Worth St Apt 5X
New York
NY 10013
E-Mail: no email available

David N. Weil
The Heller School for Social Policy and Management
Brandeis University
415 South Street
Waltham, MA 02453
E-Mail: davweil@brandeis.edu
M1  - published as Quamrul H. Ashraf,  Ashley Lester, David N. Weil. "When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?," in Daron Acemoglu, Kenneth Rogoff and Michael Woodford, editors, "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23" University of Chicago Press (2009)

M3  - presented at "23rd  Annual Conference on Macroeconomics", April 4-5, 2008
AB  - We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous health improvements on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for a direct effect of health on worker productivity, as well as indirect effects that run through schooling, the size and age-structure of the population, capital accumulation, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics, disease burdens, and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We consider both changes in general health, proxied by improvements in life expectancy, and changes in the prevalence of two particular diseases: malaria and tuberculosis. We find that the effects of health improvements on income per capita are substantially lower than those that are often quoted by policy-makers, and may not emerge at all for three decades or more after the initial improvement in health. The results suggest that proponents of efforts to improve health in developing countries should rely on humanitarian rather than economic arguments.
ER  -